Bitcoin (BTC) began 2026 on a downtrend, bottoming out (at least for now) on February 6th at $60,000. It has since recovered to over $70,000.
This escalation to more than $70,000 comes in the midst of the United States and Israel’s joint war against Iran. Last Saturday, February 28, a military attack occurred that continues to escalate tensions in the Middle East.
Iran’s response included missile and drone attacks on the military, hotels, and oil facilities of Israel and several Gulf states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates).
As a result, the price of Bitcoin fell to around $63,000 on February 28, 2018, but the price quickly stabilized. Regarding March 2nd, The digital currency has recovered to nearly $70,000. And between yesterday and today, March 5th, the price has exceeded $73,000.
Bitcoin ETF flow dynamics
one of the main engines The rally was driven by new capital inflows into Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Listed in the US.
The ETF received $1.144 billion in capital inflows between March 2nd and March 4th alone. On this, ETF specialist Eric Balciunas emphasized that nearly all the money is moving, “which means breadth and depth,” adding that he is “impressed” with the ability of these products to absorb capital even in the face of external selling pressure.
For analysis and research firm XWIN Research, the derivatives market also “played a key role.” In its analysis, the firm focuses on “open interest that has increased sharply, suggesting saturation of short positions as lending rates move into negative territory.” shorts causing a wave of short covering, rally«.
In the last part of the graph (shaded in red), you can see that the purple line representing open interest is rising rapidly vertically. From about $21 billion to $25 billion That’s it for March.
Signs of increased wholesale demand for Bitcoin
Constructive signals are also emerging from the Coinbase Premium Index analyzed by XWIN Research. This indicator measures the difference in the price of Bitcoin between two markets: the BTC-USD pair on Coinbase Advanced (a professional trading platform) and the BTC-USDT pair on Binance, the most traded exchange in the market. It actually shows whether BTC is trading at a premium or discount on Coinbase Advanced and Binance..
In the image below, you can see that the red (negative) zone dominates the graph until the end of the period (February 25th and 26th). The indicator turns green and crosses the zero line.
This suggests new demand from wealthy US investors. An increase in the premium means that the price of BTC on Coinbase Advanced will increase compared to the price on Binance. this This can be interpreted as an increase in buying pressure in the US market.relating to the activities of large or institutional investors. Such companies control significantly more capital than individual investors.
XWIN Research explains that geopolitical uncertainty remains a key issue.
During periods of global stress, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed not only as a risk asset, but also as a crisis asset used for capital movement and asset preservation.
XWIN Research, a financial research company.
Conflicting views on price sustainability
Despite optimism that BTC will return to $73,000 Questions remain about sustainability. As reported by CriptoNoticias, Carolina Gama, Argentina country manager for the Bitget exchange, has a more cautious and cautious vision.
“The combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and contraction in derivatives markets suggests that Bitcoin may remain sensitive to new geopolitical developments in the near term,” the executive said.
“High-volatility environments usually create selective opportunities, requiring discipline, careful reading of scenarios and appropriate risk management by market participants,” Gama said.
At the more extreme end of the pessimism spectrum, investor and technical analyst Thomas Wendel puts it this way: Rising as a movement of fatigue. “We are in the mass distribution phase.”
“The gradual rebound towards $71,000-$75,000 is not strength, but rather a liquidity trap designed to absorb the last optimists before a full-blown collapse,” the analyst said. From his technical perspective, “the structure is bearish and markets always break out of euphoria before true capitulation.”
