After the US and Israeli attack on Iran, Bitcoin traded in a familiar sequence. After a sharp decline over the weekend, a rebound that started before traditional markets reopened, and US-related liquidity coming back online, prices rebounded cleaner during the week.
This operation was a major escalation and the overall market positioning followed the scenario. Energy rose, stock futures fell, and there was new demand for “hard” hedging.
In commodities, Brent soared to the low $80s as traders priced in the risk of disruption, and U.S. stock futures fell as talk of a dispute grew.
Investors also tilted toward gold and the dollar over long-term bonds in the interest rate and currency framework amid concerns about inflation and stagflation as energy prices persist.
Bitcoin’s performance over the weekend served as the same 24/7 risk barometer that the cryptocurrency has served in past geopolitically focused sessions.
Saturday’s low was around $63,254, but the stock then rebounded above $67,000 and was back in the mid-$65,000 range by early Monday.
But unlike previous trades, this was a surprisingly resilient reaction, making BTC one of the few “risk-on” asset classes to soar on Monday’s U.S. market open.
During the shock of the conflict, Bitcoin has not been reliably traded as a safe haven as promised. It remains open while other big risk markets close, providing a place for traders to express fear, hedge, and reverse when the first wave of positions leaves.
The structure behind this sequence is more US-centric, as spot ETFs and CME-linked basis trading influence weekday price discovery. Weekends are still likely to print the sharpest wicks as liquidity decreases and news increases urgency.
But this week’s trend is increasingly shaping up as US cash and derivatives participants emerge en masse.
Weekend shock, weekday price revision
A neat way to describe the period since the strike is “weekend shock, weekday prices rising again.” Shock stages tend to manifest as air pockets. Traders react to fresh reports when many desks are thinly staffed and there are no US spot ETF sessions to lock in increased demand.
Then, as U.S. business hours resume and flows return through the channels that have become the most important since the ETF’s launch, the re-pricing phase will occur.
That flow channel can be seen in the daily net additions and redemptions reported by the major US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Fund flows transitioned from a significant outflow session to a series of inflows, followed by another strong inflow as markets reopened after the weekend.
| date | US Spot BTC ETF Net Flow (USD Million) | sign |
|---|---|---|
| February 23rd | -203.8 | spill |
| February 24th | +257.7 | inflow |
| February 25th | +506.6 | inflow |
| February 26th | +254.4 | inflow |
| March 2nd | +458.2 | inflow |
The net total across sessions is approximately +$1.27 billion, which helps explain why weekday repricing looks different than weekend behavior even when the underlying risk picture remains unchanged.
In fact, the weekend decline may act as the first tradeable release valve, with Monday’s trading being the point at which positioning is expressed through ETF creation, macro hedging, and cash liquidity.
This does not mean that every Monday’s rise will be “ETF-driven.” Monday’s session has more ways to turn intent into scale, including spot ETF flows, CME positioning, and broader US macro correlation. When these things come together, prices tend to move more linearly than during the less liquid weekend hours.
US time and ETF-CME feedback loop
One reason why the US time zone is so directional is that even though Bitcoin continues to trade, returns are starting to be concentrated there. Previous Kaiko research has found that returns in the US session from January to December 2023 actually outperformed APAC and London returns. 2025 period.
For a market that was once heavily reliant on offshore venues and Asia-driven liquidity, this is a notable shift in where “decision-making sessions” tend to land.
Bitcoin “smart money” has historically appeared in Asia-Pacific time rather than US time. An analysis of BTC returns split by trading session across multiple market ranges shows a repeating pattern. That is, APAC times contribute a disproportionate share of net upside or steady-state drift, while US times often coincide with drawdowns or macro-style risk-off selling.
The nuance is that “Asia” is not a monolith. Market microstructure studies on price discovery have historically emphasized stronger influence from venues such as Japan and offshore dollar markets, while retail-driven distortions (e.g., the South Korean premium episode) do not necessarily spill over into global price formation.
It’s not that APAC has always outperformed, but until the regime reversed, Asian times repeatedly looked like an accumulation window and US times behaved like a volatility/macro swing window.
The overlay of the session on the chart shows a clear reversal of the usual “Asia bid” narrative. So, while the strongest buying impulses are starting in the US time zone, the Asian time zone has recently hosted larger sell-side drift.
The biggest impulsive rise on the chart occurs during the US session (green), with a sharp vertical rise to the ~70k area occurring within the large green block on the right half of the chart.
The most recent meaningful downdrift/flash is concentrated in the Asia session (blue) by descending from the low 68s/69k area towards the current ~66.5k area, which occurs primarily during the last blue block on the far right.
Europe (orange) looks like a transition/continuation zone here, often bridging trends set in previous sessions rather than cleanly reversing them.
Why is Asia gaining while the US is buying?
Weekday sessions blend spot ETF flows with CME hedging and basis trading. When demand for ETFs causes spot to rise, basis traders can respond through futures. The same desk often expresses its views on Bitcoin when macro risks impact stocks and interest rates. This is because Bitcoin trades almost 24 hours a day and is located near the center of “risk-on/risk-off” behavior during shocks.
Recent derivatives positioning data suggests leverage is not being chased as hard as it was at its peak. According to a CryptoQuant research note, the CME basis has compressed and CME Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen approximately 47% from its peak, coinciding with the leverage reset.
A reset could reduce the probability of cascading liquidations, but it could also mean fewer marginal buyers to sustain a breakout unless spot demand (including ETF demand) continues to emerge.
Depending on the microstructure, the next quarter’s weekend wick pattern may also change. CME plans to offer 24/7 trading of crypto derivatives starting in late May.
If CME were to move closer to true full-time trading, one mechanical result could be that the “Sunday reopening” feeling would fade, reducing the thin air pockets of liquidity that exaggerate weekend news. It will not end the instability caused by conflict. It all depends on who is able to react to size and when, which is the part that tends to determine whether a weekend move becomes this week’s trend or disappears by Tuesday.
Option pricing, key levels, next month pricing
Options markets are already pricing in a wider distribution of outcomes than usual. Deribit’s Volatility Index (DVOL) is hovering around 53, and Deribit’s own statistics show that the IV percentile is around 91.8, which is high compared to the past year’s distribution.
At approximately $66,500, a DVOL level close to 53% annualized would imply a “normal” (1 standard deviation) movement of approximately ±7.3% over a week and ±15% over a 30-day period using the normal square root of time approximation.
| horizon | Implicit movement (≈1σ) | Dollar movement (BTC ≈ $66,500) | implicit range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | ±7.3% | ≈ ±$4,900 | ≈ $61,600 to $71,400 |
| 30 days | ±15% | ≈ ±$10,100 | ≈ $56,000 to $77,000 |
These ranges are consistent with the technical maps traders have been using since the weekend shock. The best way to talk about levels is in terms of “acceptance” and “failure to hold” rather than certainty. Based on the marked zones on the chart:
| zone | area | How traders tend to structure it |
|---|---|---|
| resistance | ~$69,000~$70,700 | Breakout/breakout failure area. Accepting the above may force spot tracking |
| resistance | ～$71,500～$72,000 | Next supply zone if price rises above approximately $70,700 |
| support | 1 dollar 65,000 | first shelf. Losing it often turns rallies into retests |
| support | ~$64,600 / ~$63,800 | Pre-reaction area near the weekend shock low range |
| downside marker | ~$61,700 and ~$61,100 | When macro stress persists, structural-level effects tend to become larger. |
The macro trigger that affects this setup is Energy. When oil prices remain high due to conflicts, markets tend to talk about inflation and price pressures through stocks and interest rates, a system in which Bitcoin is often traded as risk-sensitive liquidity rather than a haven.
Recent developments in energy channels and transport risks have kept that possibility on the horizon.
Therefore, forward-looking readings become conditionally observable. Traders can monitor:
- Will the US spot ETF session continue to record net inflows (or turn into a multi-day series of outflows)?
- Will DVOL cool from rising measurements or remain near the high end of its 1-year distribution?
- Will CME take advantage of the reported open interest restructuring after the drawdown?
If these inputs are supportive, leaning toward steady inflows, easing volumes, and a stable basis, the weekend push will likely be bought again during US time, and the resistance zone around $69,000-$70,700 will become more than just an overhead line.
If these inputs tilt and outflow, volume remains high, and risk markets are weak, price trends may continue to behave as they did during the initial shock. This means that it may rise sharply at first and then slowly fall as weekday liquidity monitors the movement.
The next mechanical milestone is in late May. If CME’s 24/7 crypto derivatives trading plan goes ahead, weekend shocks to weekday pricing patterns could be cushioned by margin. The market will still absorb new developments on Saturday and Sunday.
The question is whether the deepest US-related liquidity pool will wait until Monday to decide how to express it.
(Tag Translation) Bitcoin
