Ethereum is receiving two headline signals at the same time and they are pointing in different directions.
On-chain trackers flagged an explosive sale of ETH associated with Vitalik Buterin, the most famous figure on the network.
Around the same time, the Ethereum Foundation began staking a portion of its funds, marking the move as a long-term change in how it raises funds and supports the chain.
If markets are strong, both developments could become commonplace. In today’s thin risk-off tapes, contrast is the story. One headline sounds like a sell-off. The other thing seems to be an obsession.
As a result, ETH investors will have to decide which is more important: a message that helps bring the digital asset back above $2000, or a message that could put further pressure towards $1000.
Buterin’s ETH sales pace becomes the talk of the market
The most convenient way to frame activities related to Buterin is rhythm, not summation.
Wallets linked to Buterin sold approximately 3,765 ETH in approximately 2.5 days and approximately 10,723 ETH since February 2nd.
In dollar terms, its activity is reported at about $7.1 million in the recent burst and about $21.7 million month-to-date, with an average selling price of nearly $2,027.
Traders react to this acceleration. Multi-million dollar sales in and of themselves are not a volatile event for ETH.
However, the pace of selling may increase as the risk of continued selling increases at a time when demand is already uncertain.
This also affects well-known cryptographic patterns. Cryptocurrency investors monitor known wallets not only to estimate supply but also to infer trustworthiness.
Inference is often unstable, as wallets can move for reasons unrelated to market views, but still influence positioning. In risk-off situations, the impact can be significant.
There’s also a scaling reality check to keep Buterin’s story in its lane.
The U.S. Spot ETH ETF has recorded nearly $3 billion in net outflows over the past four months, according to data from SoSo Value.
These multi-billion dollar outflows, in ETH equivalents, could be several times larger than Buterin’s recent sales total.
If the ETF is short, the ETF wrapper can control price movements in a way that WalletWatch cannot.
That doesn’t mean that tangible sales are no longer effective. Reconfigure it. In today’s market, Buterin headlines are more likely to drive sentiment than supply shocks.
Foundation investment moves are changing the way we look at fundraising
The Ethereum Foundation’s staking rollout is a counter-signal to one of Ethereum’s most persistent internal disputes.
On February 24, the foundation stated:
“The Ethereum Foundation has started staking a portion of the treasury in line with the treasury policy announced last year. Today, EF made a deposit of 2016 ETH. Approximately 70,000 ETH has been staked and rewards will be returned to the EF treasury.”
For many years, a common criticism was simply that “EF sells ETH to fund its operations.” This framework turns Treasury’s activities into a referendum on stewardship.
It also encourages traders to treat any bond movement as a market event, even if the amount is small relative to liquidity.
Staking shifts the framework towards EFs earning protocol-specific yield to fund their operations. This is more like a donation model than a periodic liquidation model.
Sales are not reduced because many expenses are denominated in fiat currency. This reduces the need for forced sales at the margin and provides a more systematic approach to financial management.
The short-term outlook is modest. With a staking base of approximately 37 million ETH (approximately 30% of supply), 70,000 ETH is not enough to meaningfully change the staking market.
But symbolically speaking, it is a remarkable turning point.
Under normal circumstances, 70,000 ETH can generate approximately 2,000 ETH (ETH equivalent) per year, with network staking yields of approximately 2.8% to 3.0%.
This yield is not a substitute for a budget, but it occurs on a regular basis, making financing feel less ad hoc.
The Foundation also positions the initiative as a demonstration of best practices, highlighting decentralized signers, a multi-client approach, resiliency and client diversity.
It’s partly a technical thing and partly a matter of reputation. It’s a stake, and it also conveys EF’s desire to be seen as a steward.
Ethereum tensions deepen, usage remains important, monetization looks more flexible
The buterin sell-off story becomes more difficult because Ethereum is in a strange fundamental position.
Ethereum continues to dominate major payment rails, especially stablecoins and tokenized assets. This will continue to play a central role in how value moves across the cryptocurrency market.
However, L1 is earning less direct fee income, which means its most visible monetization channel, fee burn, is less supportive.
Ultra low gas is good for users. However, since base price burn decreases with fees, the “burn as value capture” story is less supported.
When the burn is weak, the ETH supply story looks like a traditional issue asset, with attention shifting to alternative support beams, ETF flows, macro risk appetite, and staking yields.
Staking itself is still an important part of the picture. Validator dashboards show long entry queues measured in millions of ETH and weeks of waiting time.
This shows continued interest in ETH as a yield-producing asset despite volatile price sentiment.
There is a contradiction here. More staking participation could strengthen liquid float. Tighter floats can amplify volatility in times of stress because less of the supply circulates freely.
In fear-driven markets, narratives can become more self-reinforcing. Negative headlines can prompt selling, selling can weigh on prices, and price movements can make headlines feel more important than the middle.
Three scenarios where traders are implicitly pricing
The clearest way to frame what comes next is through scenarios that combine flows, fees, and optics.
- Scenario 1: Flow conditions stabilize (base case)
As ETF outflows slow and the macro environment becomes more supportive, the market tends to become less sensitive to individual seller headlines. In such an environment, shifting EF staking can help by demonstrating long-term financial discipline. Prices are likely to become fixed again around broader ETH themes, scaling, layer 2 growth, and access to institutional investors through ETFs.
- Scenario 2: Risk-off continues (bearish case)
If macro uncertainty and capital outflows continue, illiquidity will make headlines. In this tape, the market is less concerned with whether Mr. Buterin’s sales are “big” than whether they are a convenient proxy for broader allegations. Low-fee situations weaken burn, giving bears simple narrative hooks, soft monetization, and even worse optics.
- Scenario 3: Returns from monetization (bull case)
The ETH supply situation will improve once fee pressures return due to increased L1 usage, changes in value capture, and new demand drivers. In such an environment, staking yield becomes part of a stronger total return story.
In particular, 21Shares assumes a long-term ETH range from the low $1,000s under bearish conditions to around $4,000 under bullish conditions, with flows and monetization playing a large role in the spread.
None of these scenarios are determined by a single sales person. But in an already booming market, those who care about their wallets may still be important.
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