Ethereum extended its recent decline and fell towards the $2,000 level. At first glance, the pullback appears to be stable. However, on-chain data suggests this vulnerability may not be over yet.
meanwhile $ETH When hovering around key levels, the underlying indicators reveal persistent stress. This cycle may mirror previous recession patterns.
Ethereum can repeat history
Ethereum fell below the realized price towards the end of January. since then, $ETH It remains trapped under this important on-chain benchmark. The realized price reflects the average acquisition cost of all coins in circulation. Trading below that often indicates extensive unrealized losses.
The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio confirms this pressure. $ETHMVRV remains below 1.0, indicating that the average holder is incurring losses. Extending the duration of this zone has historically coincided with severe market corrections.
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Ethereum realized price and MVRV. Source: Glassnode
Past cycles have shown that stocks eventually recover after extended periods of trading below realized prices. However, such recovery often occurs after a yielding phase. In previous bear markets, $ETH Further downsides occurred before a durable bottom could be formed. The current situation suggests that further declines may occur before stabilization.
$ETH sales are brisk
Exchange On-Balance data reveals increased supply to trading platforms. Approximately 445,000 in the past week $ETH I entered the exchange. At current prices, this translates to more than $887 million in potential selling pressure.
An increase in exchange balances usually indicates a distribution. $ETH Investors often transfer assets to exchanges for sale. The scale of recent inflows suggests increased vigilance among holders.
Ethereum exchange balance. Source: Glassnode
If prices do not recover soon, panic selling may intensify. Historically, similar spikes in exchange deposits have been preceded by sharp withdrawals. The combination of unrealized losses and increased supply increases downside vulnerability.
$ETH Prices may fall further
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $1,997. The $2,000 level represents a significant psychological threshold. This zone may attract short-term buying, but sustained selling pressure makes a sustained rebound less likely. The $1,866 level represents the next notable support based on the CBD heatmap.
Ethereum price analysis. Source: TradingView
This zone reflects previous accumulation activity. if $ETH This results in a loss of $1,866 and the downside risk increases towards $1,385. This level has served as a structural floor in previous cycles. A drop to $1,385 would represent a drop of about 30% from current levels. The next major support above that is near $1,231.
Ethereum CBD heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Conversely, if investors’ behavior changes, the trajectory may change. When the holder reduces the foreign exchange margin and resumes saving, $ETH It is likely to stabilize above $2,000. In the short term, a rebound could aim for $2,205. If buying pressure continues, the rally could extend towards $2,500, invalidating the current bearish outlook.
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