scoop: Ending February in the red would put Bitcoin on pace for a fifth consecutive month of declines, marking its longest losing streak since 2018, while spot ETF flows continue to turn negative, reinforcing the new reality that post-ETF BTC is trading like an interest rate and risk product. Unless it flips in March and regains $80,000, it will rival the worst period in history.
Bitcoin has closed lower in each of the past four months, turning negative mid-month in February, marking the fifth straight month of declines.
This result marks Bitcoin’s longest monthly losing streak in six years, but it is now viewed more as a macro stress test of the post-ETF market structure than chart trivia.
According to the data, prices fell from October 2025 to January 2026, with the largest loss in November.
It started February around $78,626 and was trading in the low $60,000s around the middle of the month.
At the time of writing this article. Bitcoin is trading at around $68,800, about 44-45% below its October high of $126,000 and down 12.6% for the month.
The all-time record for monthly drawdowns was the six months from January 2017 to August 2018. If March also ends negative, Bitcoin will match that record.
Interest rate forecast and ETF flows
This drawdown coincides with a repricing of interest rate expectations, so risk assets remain sensitive to gradual changes in their “secular upward trajectory,” according to statistics from Ned Davis Research cited by Business Insider.
Federal funds futures continue to be tilted toward hold until March 2026, with odds weighted toward no change.
A more prudent policy stance tends to raise trading hurdles like duration, and Bitcoin’s recent correlation profile has led to Bitcoin trading as a macro beta representation in many portfolios, especially when equity volatility increases.
That macro channel is now powered by the ETF wrapper itself.
Recent spot trading sessions for Bitcoin ETFs have been skewed negative, with net outflows of approximately $2 billion over the past three weeks and total daily outflows in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
In this regime, if redemptions and risk parity-style de-risking continue to put pressure on the tape, the decline is likely to continue without a crypto-specific catalyst.
Define key levels based on on-chain costs
Glassnode’s latest on-chain work frames the decline as a fierce competition between overhead supply and cost-based support.
The firm said the true market average near $80,200 has acted as an overhead resistance level, and the realized price near $55,800 has historically served as a verifiable “re-engagement” area during deeper resets.
Glassnode maps a dense cost-based zone between these poles, around $66,900 to $70,600. This zone serves as a short-term benchmark for holders to determine whether to defend their collective entry point or surrender to a pocket of low liquidity.
These levels are in line with those already noted by other market commentators, making them an easy forward corridor for the next 1-3 months.
I have suggested several times in the past that the market bottom for this cycle is around $49,000, and the sooner Bitcoin reaches that level, the more likely it is to gradually rise back to the 2028 halving.
Barron’s noted that the $55,000 to $60,000 area could be considered a volatility zone, with the 200-day moving average converging around $58,000, and the estimated average purchase price around $56,000 as a potential anchor if the sell-off accelerates.
In other words, the market is debating whether to fall from around $68,800 back to the “average” area of $80,200 or toward the realized price area of $55,800.
Each move represents a swing in the low teens.
| Pass (next 4-12 weeks) | what needs to change | Level to focus on (source) | range framing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stabilization and range trading | Outflows are slow, macros do not tighten further, cost-based buyers protect entries | Support from $66,900 to $70,600. ~$80,200 overhead (Glassnode) | ~$65,000-$82,000 (glass node) |
| deeper deleveraging | Collapse of cost band, continuation of risk-off, expansion of forced selling | $60,000 retest, then realized price of approximately $55,800 (Glassnode). $55,000-$60,000 Zone (Barons) | ~$55,000 to $60,000 (including lower stress tails discussed below) |
| collect | Macro trends ease, inflows return, and prices return to indirect supply. | ~$80,200 back (Glassnode) | ~$80,000–$95,000+ (level dependent) |
The circulating low tails are also explicitly linked to macros.
Ned Davis Research, via Business Insider, uses historical bear market averages (approximately 84% drawdown over approximately 225 days) to construct a “crypto winter” stress case that, if history is anything to go with extremes, would see Bitcoin near $31,000.
Another report from Business Insider cited a Zacks strategist outlining a path to $40,000 in three to six months and tying that scenario to the liquidity situation and previous winter period.
These are not consensus goals, but serve as boundary markers to show how far macro-driven risk aversion can reach when flows and positioning are one-sided.
For the rest of February, the calendar itself is the trigger.
A red monthly close would officially confirm a fifth consecutive month of declines, and would come at a time when the persistence of ETF flows, on-chain cost-based defenses, and federal funds pricing all indicate that Bitcoin trading is a rate and risk instrument rather than a separate, singular market.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
