So far in 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen more than 45% from its all-time high of $126,000, marked on October 6, 2025.
This period of strong bearish volatility highlights the fragility of current market sentiment. At the same time, we also observe a possible historical accumulation phase approach that presents early symptoms.
There is an investor. They are trying to adjust this price range and buy. A clear example of this is the 17% rally experienced on February 7th, where buying power drove the stock from $60,000 to $70,000 in 24 hours. However, this level could not be maintained and the price returned to around $66,000.
“This highly volatile movement reinforces the importance of adaptive indicators to distinguish between market noise and structural reversals,” said a technical analyst known as GugaOnChain. Therefore, it is proposed to observe the MVRV adaptive Z-score indicator in a 365-day window.
MVRV (market value to realized value) compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. Simply put, it measures how far the current price deviates from the average cost of the coin’s last move. Z-scores adapt this relationship to isolate annual variation and quantify the strength of deviations.
Based on a combination of these indicators, The MVRV adaptive Z-score range of 0.0 to -3.0 reflects yield and support tests.. On the other hand, low levels indicate areas of accumulation and seller depletion.
Signs of impending accumulation
at the moment, The adaptive Z-score is -2.66.suggesting that Bitcoin is still in capitulation territory. In other words, “this indicator suggests that we are approaching a historic accumulation phase,” the analyst explains.
“Statistical deviations in Z-scores raise an opportunity and indicate that the bottom of this downtrend is just building,” says GugaOnChain. The explanation behind it is as follows Yielding tends to create an accumulation zone That leads to higher prices.
An accumulation zone in a market is a phase where multiple investors start buying assets after a price decline, even though market sentiment remains negative. Therefore, during this stage, prices typically move sideways as demand begins to absorb available supply. Such periods usually precede a bullish impulse as selling pressure ends and buying power increases.
At the same time, other indicators such as the Mayer multiple are also turning on buy signals for Bitcoin. This fell to 0.6 points, a level that has rarely been touched in history and matched the lowest price of the bear period.
Still, it is important for traders to consider the risks of this scenario. These buy signals do not mean the price cannot fall further In the short term.
Permanence of Surrender
Based on Bitcoin’s historical performance, the market could trend downward for about a year from its peak. Under that assumption, a decline in prices until the last quarter of 2026 is not excluded.
Additionally, Bitcoin has historically completed a bull cycle in the year following each halving. The latest version of this event, where the amount of BTC issued was halved, occurred in 2024. Therefore, if this pattern repeats, 2026 will be a bearish year, and only then. A strong accumulation phase will begin.
However, it should be noted that there is no guarantee that past events will repeat themselves. It all depends on the flow of supply and demand, depending on how the market evolves.
Bitcoin’s decline occurs in an environment of heightened risk aversion. assets Staying correlated with the technology market It has decreased slightly since October. Such sectors include the Nasdaq 100 and stocks related to artificial intelligence.
This scenario is fueled by the threat of geopolitical tariffs and uncertainty due to the impending change in Federal Reserve leadership. Therefore, this panoramic development could be the key to restoring investor appetite.
