Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to $60,000 (USD), 50% below the all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025, and extreme bearish sentiment has resurfaced. Some critics, including Richard Farr, chief market strategist and partner at Pivotas Partners, have warned that the digital currency could lose value to zero. This is under the argument that it is an unsubstantiated speculative asset. But experts were quick to respond to the warning.
“We’ve seen this story before, but Bitcoin is going from strength to strength,” said James Ford, an economist and director of investment group Pragmatic Investor. “Bitcoin is definitely in a bear market, and as often happens during a decline, the most extreme bears are about to appear out of nowhere and emerge victorious,” he added.
For analysts, It’s worth arguing against the idea that “Bitcoin will go to zero”. All bear markets for this asset have experienced declines of approximately 80%, and each has seen some correction from previous highs to lows. As a result, this cycle allows for 75% depreciation from the maximum value, potentially resulting in less than $40,000.
The chart below shows what the decline would look like if this bear market maintained its historical pattern, based on our analysis. “Yes, this will be painful, but in my opinion it seems impossible for Bitcoin to go to zero for three main reasons,” he said.
Institutional integration, constant scarcity and utility
The first factor Ford highlights is the structural shift in the investor profile. “Bitcoin has grown from a retail experiment to the foundation of the global financial system,” he explained. Unlike previous cycles, the current bear market is Contains strong institutional investment. As the following graph shows, the company currently has over 1 million Bitcoins in its treasury.
Over the past two years, the ecosystem has also seen the approval of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and advances in regulatory frameworks that seek to integrate these assets into the traditional financial system. In this panorama, analysts highlight that by 2025, 86% of institutional investors will have registered exposure to digital assets, according to State Street Investment Management.
The second pillar of his thesis is Bitcoin’s immutable scarcity, mentioning a maximum issuance limit of 21 million units. Unlike currencies issued by central banks, which have no limit on the number of coins in circulation, their supply is fixed, making it easier to value them based on demand. For Ford, this feature makes digital currencies a “refuge from fiat currencies that continue to decline in value.”
he claimed that Printing fiat money involves a process that is difficult to break. “It’s not something that can be stopped. Not even Kevin Warsh can stop it,” he said, referring to the nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman. “Our debt-fueled system requires a continuous increase in the money supply. Tangible assets will inevitably benefit from that, and I think Bitcoin is one of them.”
Third, add the practical utility of the asset. He explained that Bitcoin can be “easily stored and transferred” without intermediaries. “This is a convenient way to store and transfer value,” he summarized.
In his opinion, BTC maintains its value because it has achieved critical mass adoption and acceptance. Therefore, he compares it to gold. Gold has no large-scale industrial use; rather, its value comes from its rarity and acceptance.
Correlation with technology market
“BTC’s decline is closely correlated with weakness in the software and technology sector driven by macro factors and market rotation,” Ford said. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX), the main stock index of technology companies, has fallen slightly from its all-time high of $26,000 in October. This is in contrast to the S&P 500 (SPX), which tracks the stock prices of 500 major companies, which continued its bull market into 2026.
BTC, Being a technology asset, it typically has a high correlation with the Nasdaq 100currently trading for less than $70,000. This is 45% below the all-time high of 126,000 cases set in October, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
In this scenario, the analyst We are aware that Bitcoin may fall further.However, this may be a positive thing. The company is approaching a price level where we believe a prudent DCA strategy will yield significant returns over the long term. Such a strategy consists of making multiple purchases to average out the total cost. “Although we cannot predict the exact amount of funding, we can plan to allocate it strategically,” he stressed.
Strategies for bear markets
From his analysis, he considers the DCA approach useful (dollar cost average) Assign three price levels. The 200-day exponential moving average at $68,000, and the areas that acted as support at $57,000 and $40,000. Their proposal is to split the 100% equity allocation into 20%, 30% and 50%, which could be rolled out at each level or, failing that, if a technical reversal is confirmed.
But Mr. Ford cautioned: The approach to accumulating Bitcoin is not without risks. “We are in unprecedented geopolitical times,” he noted. And he added that in that scenario, Bitcoin could be subject to greater scrutiny despite increasing adoption. He also cited uncertainty regarding the actions of large institutional investors, including the possibility that Strategy, Inc. (MSTR) may sell some of its holdings.
Still, he believes the asset is in a stronger position than in previous cycles. He concluded that “Bitcoin has even more potential in this cycle, with institutions and even governments investing.” In an environment of global volatility, he believes that “deploying capital over the next six months will probably pay off if you’re willing to be patient.”
