Bitcoin’s decline is back at the center of market discussion, as long-term analyst Benjamin Cowen outlines why Bitcoin’s recent decline fits into a well-known historical pattern. According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s price movement reflects a transition to a bear market phase rather than a temporary decline, and is structurally similar to previous economic downturns.
Cowen’s assessment focuses on Bitcoin’s tendency to peak in the fourth quarter of a post-halving or post-election year. He notes that previous cycle highs occurred in Q4 2013, Q4 2017, and Q4 2021. The current cycle, which peaked in Q4 2025, coincides with the same timing, reinforcing the view that the broader cycle is already over.
Cycle timing explains Bitcoin’s weakness
Cowen cites the duration of the cycle as a key factor in Bitcoin’s weakness. He explained that the latest cycle lasted about the same length as the previous two cycles. In his view, this consistency shows that the market is following historical rhythms rather than entering a so-called supercycle.
He also pointed out that altcoins did not rise, denying claims that the cycle should continue. Cowen said the lack of strength among broader altcoins does not invalidate Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, noting that a similar lack of rotation occurred during the market peak in 2019.
Similarities with 2019 market structure
Cowen highlighted 2019 as an important point of comparison, as Bitcoin peaked during a period of apathy rather than widespread euphoria. At this stage, the price decline occurred slowly, due to time-based capitulation rather than panic selling. He argued that the current economic downturn exhibits similar characteristics, including lower highs and lower lows that form over time.
He also pointed out that in both 2019 and the current cycle, Bitcoin peaked just before the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet started expanding. This overlap strengthens the comparison between the two eras, he said.
Outlook is until mid-2026
Based on these factors, Cowen expects Bitcoin’s weakness to continue until at least the first half of 2026. While he acknowledged that counter-trend pullbacks could occur, he said they were tactical moves rather than signs of a new bull market.
In related comments, Cowen noted the increasing dominance of stablecoins and declining interest in layer 1 assets from 2021 onwards, and said that trends continue to shape investor positioning. He also highlights the different roles of Bitcoin and gold in changing liquidity conditions, linking their appeal to concerns about fiat currency depreciation rather than short-term price fluctuations.
Related: Benjamin Cowen predicts Bitcoin’s next big peak in late 2025, followed by a decline in 2026
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