Bitcoin’s Groundhog Day means another 6 weeks of macro winter if core flows remain deep red

Bitcoin Groundhog Day: 6 more weeks of macro winter?

Bitcoin had a Groundhog Day moment today, as Punxsutawney Phil “saw his shadow” at the 140th anniversary celebration, hinting at six more weeks of winter. Shortly after, Bitcoin fell to $74,000 in a sharp risk-off move.

This coincidence was perfect. A combination of forced liquidations, ETF outflows, and rising real yields suggest that cryptocurrencies may face a prolonged period of macro cooling and increased volatility heading into the March FOMC meeting.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has rebounded slightly to around $77,500 as the decline in cross-asset risk conforms to the cryptocurrency’s 24/7 market structure.

Total crypto liquidations over the weekend exceeded $2 billion, and in the past 24 hours alone exceeded $800 million.

The lasting lesson over the coming weeks is that Bitcoin will continue to behave like a leveraged risk exposure if the discount rate and dollar price rise rapidly.

This episode is another stress test for the “Digital Gold” story. This is especially true when gold holds better during risk-off periods and Bitcoin trades in line with long-term risk.

ETF flows and liquidation dynamics

Flow is a clean daily reading with minimal demand.

Pharside Investors’ ETF totals show repeated large net outflows through late January, including multiple sessions that removed hundreds of millions of dollars in spot demand in a single day.

This is important because the dips do not have the same mechanical bid when the ETF is redeemed. The liquidation cascade could also go further with a thinner order book.

Macro anchors were also moving into that window for period-sensitive assets.

Trading Economics expects the US 10-year nominal yield to be around 4.24% to 4.26% as of January 30th close. According to StreetStats, the 10-year TIPS real yield at the same reference point is approximately 1.93%.

In practice, that real yield level tends to increase the hurdle rate for assets that are priced to take into account future adoption and liquidity conditions. It also reduces the extent to which speculative leverage can continue without periodic resets.

Uncertainty in the policy regime is part of the repricing story.

Headlines about Kevin Warsh and the leadership of the Federal Reserve play into the growing risk premium across markets related to perceptions of the Fed’s independence and the path of inflation.

Because cryptocurrencies are highly leveraged, they tend to express their uncertainty more forcefully. Liquidity is diluted even outside of U.S. business hours and is automatically liquidated when the collateral threshold is reached.

That is why liquidation should be treated as a transmission mechanism rather than a root cause.

Macro repricing determines direction. Prices then experience illiquidity, and liquidations add supply and magnify the movement.

Things to keep an eye on ahead of the March FOMC meeting

In a “six more weeks” framework, the most actionable checklist is whether marginal bids will return by the midpoint of the next major policy.

Over a period of 2 to 6 weeks:

1. The most obvious mechanical change would be if ETF inflows continue. This means execution volume to offset the pace of redemptions in late January rather than a single green day.
2. Whether real yields decline from the ~2% region. This reduces discount rate pressure on risky assets.
3. Whether implied volatility has a mean reversal after a flush. Deribit’s DVOL index rose from around 37 to over 44 during a down week. A DVOL level of just above 44 maps to an expected 30-day volatility of around ±13% using the general rule of thumb (annual volatility divided by the square root of 12).

This leaves room for further two-way price movement, even if the headlines cool. Two paths follow from the same set of gauges.

• If the ETF total remains net negative for multiple sessions and real yields remain near recent levels, Bitcoin could continue to trade as a leveraged risk beta into March. Rise may be capped by redemption-driven supply and lingering demand for option hedging.
• If ETF flows stabilize and macros stop margin tightening, post-liquidation resets could reduce the risk of forced sales. That way, spot demand can set the tape again, rather than the cascade setting the pace.

This calendar provides a clear endpoint for the Groundhog Day metaphor. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for March 17-18, 2026.