Discussions about quantum computing have re-established themselves in the Bitcoin ecosystem, but not because of any specific technological advancements, but because of their potential to influence investor behavior.
According to an analysis published by Blockspace co-founder Charlie Spears on January 26th. There is no solid evidence that the market is selling. Bitcoin (BTC) is widely popular for this reason.
The discussion was sparked by an announcement by investment bank Jefferies. Removes exposure to BTC due to risks associated with quantum computingas reported by CriptoNoticias.
Spears’ report argues that it is hasty to extrapolate this particular case to the trend of prices discounting quantum risk.
In your analysis, consider price weakness solely due to quantum risk ignore simple explanationsthe rotation of capital into other assets, and the temporary lack of attractiveness of Bitcoin as an “operation of the moment”. Bitcoin will face complex price issues, but quantum computing will not pose a direct threat to price.
In this context, the discussion comes as BTC prices continue to remain sideways, having traded in a range of approximately $80,000 to $90,000 since late November to date, after an all-time high of $126,000 in October.
Central argument: the risk of not being able to “price it”
From Charlie Spears’ perspective, if an investor has priced quantum risk correctly, he or she must meet at least one of two conditions:
- have technical understanding Deep insights into quantum computing and cryptography.
- maintain Close communication with experts You can assess the risk.
Spears points out that the same level of sophistication means that Bitcoin’s other technical risks, which are less abstract and could be exploited today, are also reflected in the price.
According to Blockspace’s co-founders, that won’t happen. attack called poison block (blocks designed to make it difficult or impossible for other miners to verify the block in a reasonable amount of time), time warp (difficulty adjustment operations) or even partial computing power control scenarios do not seem to be part of most investors’ normal analysis.
In this context, he concludes: Quantum risks cannot be ignored either. Consistently.
“Quantum discount” and how to read the market
In his report, Charlie Spears cites a graph created by Capriol Investments to illustrate one of the popular theories about the impact of quantum computing on the price of Bitcoin.
As seen in the chart below, BTC has recently underperformed relative to the S&P 500 index. This difference was interpreted as a possibility by Capriole. “quantum discount”: and Discounts applied by the market in the face of future threats This stands for quantum computing in Bitcoin.
The graph overlays both curves and highlights the divergence that suggests BTC would have lagged behind traditional stocks due to that factor.
But Spears questions this interpretation, warning that it may be a story constructed, at least in part, after the fact. So it’s a fear that isn’t impacting the market, or at least not in the immediate short term.
The Blockspace co-founder also mentioned Capriole founder Charles Edwards. As reported by CriptoNoticias, he is one of the ecosystem voices most advocating for accelerated development of quantum defenses.
Mr. Edwards argues that Bitcoin needs to be prepared to withstand that scenario as early as 2026.
In a similar vein, DoubleZero Foundation co-founder Austin Federa recently said that the lack of a clear plan to confront this emerging technology is a “major roadblock.” Maintain an unwaveringly bullish stance on Bitcoin over the long term.
Even so, for cbspears these positions do not constitute a systemic response.
From his perspective, the market is still Even quantum risks were not widely internalized. There are also no other associated technical risks.
Therefore, we believe that the recent price decline is a response to traditional market factors rather than a rational adjustment due to long-term technological threats.
(Tag translation) Analysis and research
