The idea of buying an asset like Bitcoin (BTC) is to be able to sell it at a higher price in the future for a profit. However, this is not the case for those who are currently ditching the currency.
For the first time since October 2023, There are more Bitcoin investors sell at a loss rather than a profit. This is shown by on-chain data from the CryptoQuant explorer since December 23rd.
Cumulative losses since then amounted to 69,000 BTC, a figure currently worth over $6 billion (USD). This comes as Bitcoin has fallen from the ATH of USD 126,000 recorded in October. It is currently trading at around $89,000, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
“Bitcoin tourists are cutting their losses,” commented Ki Yong-joo, CEO of CryptoQuant. In this term, refers to investors with low confidence Unlike long-term investors, who historically hold onto their positions even during large price corrections.
From decrease in profit to loss
Before the system changed from taking profits to taking losses, Realized revenue momentum was steadily declining As shown in the following graph, consecutive low peaks were recorded in January 2024, December 2024, July 2025, and October 2025.
“Spot prices had previously remained high, but this pattern indicates weakening in price strength,” CryptoQuant notes. From an on-chain perspective, this divergence suggests continued buying at high prices, making upward profit-taking impossible.
Realized profit represents the positive difference between the acquisition price of BTC and the price at which the BTC was transferred or used. A contraction in this indicator indicates a reduction in the rate of return available to investors, and this condition typically precedes a broad change in the market cycle.
Bitcoin will go through a similar pattern from 2021 to 2022
CryptoQuant points out that the current trends are very similar to the 2021-2022 market. Bitcoin goes from bullish cycle to crypto winter.
During this period, realized gains peaked in January 2021, the highest for the entire year, and eventually turned into a net loss before the start of the 2022 bear market.
“The current pattern closely reflects the bullish-to-bearish transition in 2021-2022,” the report highlights. At the time, the shift from profit to loss was an early sign that the market structure was changing, even before the correction was fully reflected in prices.
Another relevant data is Sharp contraction in realized net profit on an annual basis. According to CryptoQuant, this indicator decreased from 4.4 million BTC recorded in October to 2.5 million BTC, reaching a level comparable to that observed in March 2022.
For the company, this compression reinforces the idea that current on-chain revenue dynamics are consistent with early-stage bear market conditions.
In this context, low-conviction participants are usually the first to capitulate, reduce their exposure, and suffer losses when bullish momentum runs out. This behavior is in contrast to that of long-term hodlers, who historically tend to take profits at high prices.
Still, while this data alone does not confirm the beginning of a bear market, it does indicate that the dynamics are shifting. The shift from taking profits to realizing losses is due to the fact that some parts of the market Starting to lose confidence in the continuity of Bitcoin’s bullish cycle.
