The earliest realistic path for Bitcoin to become the world’s global reserve currency (defined here as reserve currency dominance rather than limited reserve asset adoption) is set around the mid-2040s under a scenario model that treats formal obligations, the use of collateral, and invoicing practices as binding constraints.
That timeline begins with a reserve regime in which total global foreign exchange reserves reached $12.94 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, with the US dollar still accounting for 56.32% of allocated foreign exchange reserves.
The same IMF series illustrates why it is difficult to reliably model decadal reversals, even under rapid private penetration. The denominator is large and changes slowly.
The IMF projected that in the first quarter of 2025, the US dollar would account for 57.74% of allocated reserves, the euro 20.06% and the renminbi 2.12%. These numbers show the balance sheet distribution of “safe” reserves that central banks already have in place.
Reserve currency status also tracks the funding and hedging ecosystem behind the reserve currency portfolio. As of April 2022, 88% of global foreign exchange transactions were in dollars.
The core of that network’s collateral remains the US Treasury.
According to the January 2026 latest edition of SIFMA’s U.S. Treasury securities statistics, the balance was approximately $30.3 trillion, and the average daily trading volume was approximately $1.471 trillion.
Two Steps: Adoption of Reserve Assets and Reserve Currency Advantage
Therefore, there are two separate steps in the Bitcoin reserve currency case, and the market often compresses them into one story. The first is a “reserve asset breakthrough,” where public institutions and regulated intermediaries treat BTC as a limited-scale long-term reserve diversification vehicle.
The second is “reserve currency dominance,” in which BTC becomes the standard unit for cross-border billing, settlement, collateral, and liquidity provision.
The IMF’s dominant currency framework explains why billing and contracting practices can persist even as trade shares fluctuate, as pricing and financing practices can be self-reinforcing in times of stress and peace.
Its sustainability is outlined in the IMF staff discussion note “Major Currencies and External Adjustments.”
Policy and market mechanisms currently being developed may also raise the bar for that second step. Rather than replacing the use of dollars, it can be extended to new rails.
BIS said Project Agora is considering tokenizing wholesale central bank funds and commercial bank deposits on a programmable platform for cross-border payments. This envisions a future where major currency payments and bank balance sheets remain the primary “objects of money”, even if the interface changes.
In its 2025 Stablecoin Outlook, Citi revised its 2030 issuance forecast to $1.9 trillion in the base case and $4.0 trillion in the bull case.
Separately, McKinsey plans to tokenize around $2 trillion of real-world assets by 2030, excluding cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. We estimate the range to be approximately $1 trillion to $4 trillion, potentially increasing the scale of the balance sheet transition without changing the unit of reserve calculation.
Access is expanding, but formal constraints remain
Regulation of access to Bitcoin has expanded. This removes one barrier to broader base asset ownership, while leaving the base currency hurdle in place.
The SEC approved 11 Spot Bitcoin ETP Rule 19b-4 filings on January 10, 2024. This created a standardized wrapper for US investors and some institutions that cannot directly manage BTC.
Secondary market indicators show rapid growth of these wrapping papers. The cumulative trading volume of U.S. spot virtual currency ETFs is over $2 trillion, and the assets of spot Bitcoin ETFs are approximately $117 billion as of January 2, 2026.
That data point is more important as an introduction channel than as a direct proxy for sovereign reserve intent. For more information on AUM and market positioning, see Spot Bitcoin ETF celebrates 1-year anniversary with 4 companies in top 20 by AUM.
Short-term central bank actions already suggest competing diversification measures consistent with reserve managers’ constraints. The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased about 1,045 tonnes of gold in 2024, the third year in a row that they exceeded 1,000 tonnes.
In the 2025 survey, 95% of respondents expect global gold reserves to increase, with a record 43% expecting their own gold holdings to increase in the next 12 months. These findings were published in the WGC’s 2024 Gold Demand (Central Banks Section) and the 2025 WGC Central Bank Survey.
This observable flow constrains models that assume short-term public decentralization defaults to BTC. Instead, it competes with reserve assets for which accounting and liquidity practices are already established.
Constrained model shows earliest date around 2046
Therefore, predicting the future of Bitcoin as the world’s “global reserve currency” depends on the gates that it must pass through in order.
These include volatility compression suitable for reserve portfolios, legal and regulatory standardization for custody and settlement finality, and deeper collateral and funding markets that can operate under stress.
These also include public sector obligations that go beyond symbolic assignments. Finally, invoicing, settlement, and collateral practices will need to move away from the current dollar standard.
The hurdles these gates must overcome can be seen in macro data such as the dollar’s share of foreign exchange reserves, the dollar’s position in the foreign exchange market, and the size of the Treasury’s collateral. These constraints are based on COFER, BIS FX research, and SIFMA government bond market statistics.
Using these constraints, our scenario model assigns an “earliest time” for reserve currency dominance around 2046.
This is distinct from the previous possibility that BTC would become a small reserve asset in some portfolios.
The probability table below treats reserve currency dominance as the target outcome. We explicitly frame the numbers as editorial modeling rather than source-based predictions.
| horizon | Probability that BTC will become the world’s key currency (dominant) by then (edited model) | Model anchors tied to observable constraints |
|---|---|---|
| 5 years (2031) | 1% | Although access to ETPs exists, reserve manager requirements and authority obligations rarely change within a single cycle, while the US dollar reserve share and foreign exchange dominance remain high (CRS, IMF COFER 2025Q2, BIS FX Survey). |
| 10 years (2036) | 4% | Tokenized deposits and USD-denominated stablecoins can be scaled on programmable rails to enhance the use of existing currencies even as payment technologies change (BIS Project Agora, Citi Stablecoin Framework). |
| 20 years (2046) | 15% | The impact on the Treasury’s collateral base and exchange networks remains significant, but could worsen due to multiple cycles of regulatory convergence and financial market maturation (SIFMA Treasury Statistics, BIS FX Survey). |
| 50 years (2076) | 35% | While a long-term perspective allows for institutional rewiring, the persistence of the dominant currency in invoicing and contracting remains a structural headwind (IMF’s dominant currency framework). |
| never | 45% | Structural barriers include the lack of issuer backstops against stressed operations and the potential for tokenized USD systems to absorb most of the digital money demand (BIS Project Agora, Citi Stablecoin Framework). |
While definitions are important, the use of the dollar in cross-border payments and trade finance also remains a constraint associated with the currency-dominated model. The Wall Street Journal cited SWIFT data that says dollars are used for about 47% of payments and 80% of trade finance.
These numbers give you direction if you don’t have the underlying SWIFT release in hand.
The combined data reveals a split between fast-moving channels that can increase Bitcoin exposure and slower-moving channels that define its reserve currency status.
According to the BIS and Citi framework, tokenized bank money and stablecoins could reach trillions of dollars within a decade, keeping dollars and bank deposits at the center of payments.
According to the World Gold Council and COFER, central banks can continue to add gold as a hedge to their balance sheets while keeping the dollar at the core of their foreign exchange reserves. These constraints make 2046 the “earliest time” of dominance in this model, rather than the median result.
They also maintain a short-term story centered on whether Bitcoin can mature as collateral and liquidity infrastructure that reserve managers can hold even under stress.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
