According to data from the weekly price chart, Bitcoin is witnessing significant losses of over 6% following the recent widespread market liquidation. In particular, the best cryptocurrency is It has taken a consolidated stance in the past days, as if it trusts growing hopes for a price recovery. However, a recent on-chain analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s outward show of resilience may be just theater and points out that the flagship cryptocurrency could face a bleak future ahead.
Bitcoin has entered a 30-day cumulative realized loss phase since October 2023.
In a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, cryptocurrency education and research group XWIN Research Japan analyzes Bitcoin’s current on-chain situation. The center of attraction is the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator. This marks the first time the leading cryptocurrency has recorded a net realized loss on a 30-day basis since October 2023.
However, the losses seen in 2023, unlike the current decline, which is more widespread and sustained, are short-term and rapid recovery, suggesting a structural change in market dynamics is possible. Currently, investors appear to be less interested in “buying the dip,” less likely to expect to “HODL” through Bitcoin price action, and more willing to accept losses.
For this reason, it is more plausible to say that the market is on alert. However, it is worth mentioning that the current phase does not necessarily precede a market crash. Rather, it reflects that Bitcoin may be entering a more volatile phase, separate from the speculative frenzy.
Realized profits represent the later stages of a bullish cycle.
XWIN Research further strengthens its hypothesis by referring to realized profit trends. According to market experts, realized profits peaked at around 1.2 million BTC in March 2024 and fell slightly to 1.1 million BTC in December 2024.
As of July 2025, realized profits have plummeted to 517,000 BTC, reflecting the growing drain of profit-making activity within the market. However, this pales in comparison to the 331,000 BTC recorded in October. The analysis group explained that this contraction occurred despite rising prices, suggesting a lack of significant upward momentum.
The group further emphasizes that this is a sign of a late bull market emerging in 2021-2022. During this period, realized profits slowly declined before the Bitcoin price took a bearish turn. What’s more shocking is that a similar story is told on an annual basis, with annual net profit decreasing from 4.4 million BTC to 2.5 million BTC in October 2025 and early 2026. This is similar to the previous stage of the 2022 bear market.
Essentially, Bitcoin is transitioning from a mature bullish phase to an unstable environment. As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is $89,462.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
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