Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 by major banks, asset managers, and market commentators range broadly from $75,000 to $250,000, with many targets clustered in the low to mid-six digit range.
This wide range reflects uncertainty about whether institutional demand will be able to offset weak retail participation and whether Bitcoin’s macro sensitivity to liquidity conditions will increase again during 2026.
Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 forecast to $150,000 in December 2025, down from its previous target of $300,000.
Jeffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital asset research, said the bull market has become more reliant on ETF purchases than expanded corporate bond purchases, and the pace will be slower than expected.
Mr. Bernstein has a 2026 target of $150,000 and a peak of $200,000 in 2027, predicting an extended bull cycle in which institutional buying offsets retail panic selling and breaks the traditional four-year pattern.
JPMorgan established a fair value estimate of $170,000 within 6-12 months using a gold-based framework that adjusted for Bitcoin’s high volatility and risk profile.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is predicting $200,000 this month, while Strategy’s Michael Saylor discusses the $150,000 level as a reasonable outcome under continued institutional implementation.
Carol Alexander of the University of Sussex predicts a volatile range between $75,000 and $150,000, centered at $110,000, one of the most conservative of her widely cited forecasts.
Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson floated a $250,000 scenario, arguing that limited supply could meet accelerating institutional demand.
Bitcoin bull case
The $150,000 to $250,000 bull market will depend on institutions absorbing available supply through ETFs, asset platforms, and long-term allocation strategies.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balciunas estimates that crypto ETF inflows in 2026 could reach around $15 billion in a base case, and as much as $40 billion if market conditions improve.
Galaxy Digital’s 2026 Outlook predicts that net inflows to U.S. spot crypto ETFs could exceed $50 billion as asset management platforms and model portfolios expand access.
Flow data for early 2026 also showed a strong start, with the US Spot Bitcoin ETF attracting approximately $1.1 billion in the first two business days, for two-day net inflows of approximately $697 million. But that quickly dissipated over the next few weeks.
Some asset managers argue that during periods of sustained inflows, demand for ETFs can match or exceed new issuance, and that if this trend continues, market liquidity will tighten.
On-chain analysts also point to signs that long-term holder accumulation will resume in the second half of 2025, consistent with the market moving from distribution to long-term positioning.
| institution | 2026 target | major papers |
|---|---|---|
| standard chartered | $150,000 | ETF-driven demand. Slower pace than expected in previous cycles |
| bernstein | $150,000 | Extended bull cycle. Institutional buying offsets retail selling |
| JP Morgan | $170,000 | Gold-based framework adjusted for volatility and risk premium |
| Tom Lee (Fandstrat) | $200,000 | Continuing momentum and increasing institutional participation |
| Michael Thaler (Strategy) | $150,000 | Institutional adoption and structural supply constraints |
| Carol Alexander (University of Sussex) | $75,000 – $150,000 | Range of high volatility. conservative view |
| Charles Hoskinson (Cardano) | $250,000 | Supply constraints meet institutional demand |
bitcoin bear case
The $35,000-$70,000 bear market focuses on CryptoQuant’s view that Bitcoin has entered a bear market regime in late 2025 based on on-chain indicators.
CryptoQuant and other on-chain desks have highlighted multiple indicators consistent with drawdown risk, suggesting downside potential could continue into 2026 if demand remains unsteady and the macro environment tightens.
On the technical side, traders look to past cycle highs, realized price zones, and long-term moving averages as potential support bands if volatility accelerates.
ETF flows are also said to be more price sensitive during risk-off periods, weakening when prices fall and accelerating again when momentum and investor confidence improve.
Some bearish frameworks argue that the relationship between Bitcoin and global liquidity has eased after 2025, while bullish frameworks argue that lag effects and changes in Fed policy expectations may eventually restore positive sensitivity to easing financial conditions.
From a longer-term perspective, ARK Invest’s 2030 valuation work outlines a bear case of around $300,000 per Bitcoin, a base case of nearly $710,000, and a bull case of around $1.5 million.
The 2028 halving will reduce daily issuance to around 225 BTC, raising the possibility that sustained institutional demand will have an even larger marginal impact on the price if supply remains strong.
After all, the wide forecast range of $75,000 to $250,000 confirms that even sophisticated market participants disagree on Bitcoin’s 2026 trajectory, making the market highly sensitive to whether institutional inflows continue or decline.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
