The current situation in Bitcoin (BTC) reflects a mixed signals scenario with cautious bears and bulls coexisting. Prices have fallen from the $90,000 (USD) psychological zone. This was because the number could not maintain the 98,000 mark recorded last week, the highest in more than a month, raising expectations that the number would return to the record high of 126,000 set in October.
autumn Occurs in a context characterized by global macroeconomic uncertainty With the intensification of the tariff war. US President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries starting February 1, increasing it to 25% in June. These will only be stopped if an agreement is reached on the “takeover” of Greenland.
Trump also escalated trade tensions on Tuesday, threatening to impose 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne unless President Emmanuel Macron joins a peace commission set up to resolve conflicts in Gaza and other areas. The European Union is planning to retaliate against the US move.
Carolina Gama, BitGet’s country manager in Argentina, commented that Bitcoin was “again under pressure” “in line with deteriorating global market sentiment.” “Markets are taking a more cautious stance as we await Donald Trump’s speech in Davos scheduled for today,” the executive told CriptoNoticias.
From a technical perspective, price direction is key. For experts, a positive reaction could stabilize the price and create room for a recovery towards $94,000, postponing confirmation of the bearish bias.
On the other hand, it has been consistently declining Increased risk of continued orthodonticshe claims. In that scenario, “the market would begin to discount deeper corrections in the short term,” the crypto exchange’s board noted.
Bitcoin Whales Become Cautious, Retailers Under Pressure
According to on-chain data firm Glassnode, selling pressure has prevailed among investors holding less than 1,000 BTC since mid-December. In contrast, people with greater ownership, known as “whales”, stopped strong accumulation They registered between November and early 2026.
However, while large holders changed their behavior, the dynamics were not the same as those of small holders. Well, Explorer’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Scale ranges from 0 (red) indicating sell to 1 (blue) indicating buy, and shows that the whale is currently at about 0.5 (yellow). This assumes a neutral strategy on the part of the user.
Instead, Investors with a small amount of Bitcoin holdings are close to zero.. This can be seen in the following graph. Indicates buying and selling trends depending on the size of investors’ holdings.
Whales are generally considered to be a more cautious category of investors and tend to be less sensitive to market movements than individual participants. Typically, these large holders sell when they predict a price high and buy when they identify a potential low.
In that sense, the fact that it has not turned into intense sales activity means that Some bright signs are emerging. However, if it turns red on the chart, bearish pressure may increase as the whales move in large numbers.
Still, not all indicators are encouraging. According to CryptoQuant’s on-chain data, losses from the sale of Bitcoin, or stock holdings, have been more prevalent than gains since December. The indicator entered negative territory for the first time since October 2023, according to the 30-day simple moving average. This data brings attention to the overall measurements.
The delayed winter of virtual currency
Beyond the geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin has not entered into a sharp decline at this time, as it historically would do when reaching the peak of a bull cycle about a year and a half after each halving. This makes the bull think: There is room for the currency to hit a new all-time high in 2026Unless the wind direction worsens for the market. The accumulation of exchange-traded funds motivates these predictions.
Meanwhile, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (FED), has injected significant liquidity into the financial system, with total operations exceeding $200 billion in the first few weeks of 2026. Experts have argued that this could amount to hidden quantitative easing (QE), as it could indirectly expand balance sheets and boost markets.
Still, an escalating tariff war could impact transatlantic trade and put downward pressure on risk assets. This space could suffer if Bitcoin is not seen as a haven like gold.
Therefore, the current scenario combines technical, macroeconomic and on-chain factors pointing in different directions. In this balance of power, The market appears to be going through a phase of definition.watch closely for new signs.
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