Bitcoin’s June 26 option expiration provides a clear picture of how risks are set for the months ahead, and the picture that emerges is one of intentional insurance.
As of January 20, total open interest at maturity was nearly $3.92 billion in nominal terms, with puts outnumbering calls by approximately 2.328 million contracts to 1.987 million contracts. This imbalance does not in itself indicate direction, but it does indicate that protection demand is being restructured in visible and measurable ways.
Its protective structure is concentrated rather than diffused. The put open interest cluster is concentrated between $75,000 and $85,000, accounting for approximately one-fifth of all expiry-related puts. The maximum single concentration is $85,000, closely followed by $75,000 and $80,000.
The data here clearly shows that this is not deep tail insurance that sits well below the market. This reflects a hedging band that is close enough to find the point that is important to the portfolio’s risk, and close enough that it can be maintained without paying extreme volatility premiums.
Especially above $120,000 and $130,000, calls exist throughout the chain, and there are also positions outside of it.
This combination suggests that the upside exposure has not disappeared. Instead, Deribit’s book shows a market that continues to maintain upside convexity while accumulating near-spot downside insurance, a pattern consistent with structured positioning rather than outright bearish conviction.
Where is the standard market price?
The most important reference point in the chain is the at-the-money zone. This is because it acts as an anchor for how probabilities and payoffs are calculated. In Deribit data, the strike closest to a neutral delta is around $95,000, with a $95,000 call having a delta of just over 0.52 and a corresponding put just under -0.48.
This adjustment puts the market’s forward reference for the June expiry in the mid-$90,000 range.
Simply put, this is the price level that the options market is treating as the most neutral outcome for the day. This is the point at which traders decide how much upside exposure to maintain and how much downside insurance to purchase.
When probabilities are estimated, they are calculated relative to this reference level rather than the current spot price.
From this anchor, the downward structure becomes more obvious. The crowded position below $85,000 is the zone where traders are most willing to pay for protection if Bitcoin falls between now and the end of June.
Volatility appears to be calming, but protection remains expensive
At first glance, implied volatility (IV) does not appear to be extended. Around the $95,000 at-the-money (ATM) strike, implied volatility for the June expiry is in the low-to-mid 40% range, consistent with the broader compression seen across BTC’s long-term ATM volatility history.
Compared to previous periods of market stress, the current volatility environment is relatively calm.
This means that the market is not pricing in continued large fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price. The level of volatility indicates that traders are expecting controlled rather than chaotic price action.
However, that coolness doesn’t apply evenly across the options surface.
Downside protection clearly trades at a premium over upside exposure. If you look at comparable deltas, puts have an implied volatility several points higher than equivalent calls.
This negative bias indicates that traders are currently willing to pay more for a downside position than for an upside position. Premium data further supports this, with the market value of puts expiring in June far exceeding the market value of calls.
This asymmetry is also how Derive.xyz, an on-chain options platform, frames its setup. The firm’s head of research, Dr Shaun Dawson, described a market where volatility has been compressed, although there is still demand for downside insurance.
“There is a clear downward bias in the options market, with a 30% probability that BTC will fall below $80,000 by June 26th, but a 19% chance that it will rise above $120,000 during the same period,” he told igcurrencynews.
This number reflects pricing mechanisms rather than beliefs, but is directionally consistent with the surface slope.
This profile of Greece before and after expiration explains why the mid-$90,000 region is mechanically important. Vega, theta, and gamma all peak near the ATM zone. This means that changes in volatility, time decay, and hedge flows are most sensitive there.
While the price feels mechanically stable around that level, it can behave differently if it drifts toward a heavy downside hedge zone or accelerates past a major call strike.
The broad takeaway here is structural rather than predictive. For the June 26 expiry, the market is anchored around $95,000, with insurance concentrated between $75,000 and $85,000, indicating sustained upside exposure of over $120,000.
While volatility levels alone underestimate the asymmetry, skew and open interest make it more noticeable.
Options markets are not in a panic, but they are clearly allocating money to protect against a range of downsides into the middle of the year.
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