Ethereum price appreciation has reached a major resistance zone at $3,400, and multiple technical confluence levels increase the likelihood of rejection unless buyers reclaim that area in volume.
summary
- Ethereum Testing resistance on the $3,400 high timeframe
- Confluence contains bearish order block + VAH + 0.618 Fibonacci
- Rejection increases downside odds towards lower support in value area
Ethereum (Ethereum) Recent price action has been particularly impulsive, with buyers driving a strong rally towards the key higher timeframe resistance around $3,400. This level is currently acting as a major inflection point, and the market needs to either break through this level to confirm bullish continuation or reject it and turn lower to maintain the broader macro range structure.
Important technical points of Ethereum price
- Ethereum bounces off the $3,400 high resistance level
- This zone includes a bearish order block, a high price area, and the 0.618 Fibonacci confluence.
- Failure to recover $3,400 increases downside risk to downside support in the value area.
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ETHUSDT (4H) chart, source: TradingView
Ethereum’s $3,400 resistance zone is structurally important as it indicates an area where sellers have been aggressively defending the price thus far. This is the level that often attracts distributional behavior where large participants accumulate strength as retail traders and momentum traders seek continuity.
From a market profile perspective, the high price area typically represents the upper limit of acceptable values within the range. If price rebounds into this area and fails to sustain acceptance, it will often reverse towards lower values, especially if the broader macro structure remains range-bound.
At the same time, a bearish order block adds an additional layer of resistance. Order blocks often mark zones where institutional supply has previously entered the market, so when those areas revisit, the price can face significant selling pressure. When these factors come together, the burden of proof shifts to the purchaser.
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0.618 Fibonacci confluence and distribution risk
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement is one of the most widely appreciated levels in technical analysis and often serves as a pivotal decision point between continuation and reversal. If Ethereum trades to the 0.618 confluence at $3,400, the chances of market momentum slowing increase.
Distribution becomes the real risk here. The distribution phase often occurs when price reaches a major resistance zone, volume begins to spike, and buyers struggle to push the market higher. As a result, a core of rejection often emerges, followed by acceptance, as prices return to their previous range.
If Ethereum fails to regain $3,400 on a closing price basis, the rally risks becoming a false breakout attempt, with the odds pointing towards a pullback rather than a continuation.
Macro range remains the dominant framework
While Ethereum’s recent moves have been impulsive, the broader macro picture still suggests the market is trading within a range. In range conditions, price often oscillates between resistance near the high of the value area and support near the low of the value area, with repeated rejections unless a definitive breakout occurs.
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In the case of Ethereum, a clean break above $3,400 would signal a change in its macro framework. It suggests acceptance above resistance and confirms that buyers have enough strength to sustain higher prices.
However, without that acceptance, a rotating decline scenario would be more likely as the market moves back to the lower end of the range to seek support and rebalancing values.
What confirms a breakout?
For Ethereum to break above $3,400 and maintain upward momentum, two key factors need to be present: volume and acceptance.
A breakout without volume is vulnerable. In many cases, the resistance fails to hold and quickly moves above the resistance, pulling the price back into the range. In contrast, true breakouts tend to be impulsive, supported by expanding volume, followed by multiple higher time frame closes above that level.
If Ethereum is able to regain $3,400 and move above it with strong participation, the market will likely continue above the current range and towards a higher resistance zone.
What to expect from future price trends
Ethereum is currently in a major decision phase. The $3,400 resistance area represents an important technical confluence and the market is likely to react strongly to this area. A breakout scenario requires strong volume expansion and sustained acceptance above the resistance level.
Without that confirmation, the risk of rejection remains high and a rebound to the lows of the value area becomes more likely.
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