Bitcoin could emerge as a long-term winner if world authorities confirm the existence of non-human intelligence, even if the immediate effects cause severe financial shocks.
Over the weekend, reports emerged that Helen McCaw, a former senior analyst at the Bank of England, had urged Governor Andrew Bailey to consider contingency plans for a scenario in which the US government, or any other trusted authority, releases conclusive evidence that humanity is not alone.
In her analysis, the risk goes beyond market disruption. This is a rapid confidence shock that could spill over from asset prices to the plumbing of everyday life, disrupting installations and payments, and, in the worst case scenario, causing civil unrest.
ontological shock
McCaw bases his argument on “ontological shock.” The term is increasingly used in the risk industry to describe the destabilizing effects of sudden changes in shared reality.
In this scenario, collective psychological disorientation leads directly to material economic consequences.
McCaw argued in the Sol Foundation’s white paper that this situation could lead to a pathway to financial instability.
She wrote that if disclosure of UAPs (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) signifies “power and intelligence greater than any government,” it could undermine the legitimacy and trust that markets and banking systems silently rely on.
According to her:
“Confirmation, or even speculation, that a new technology exists will create an exogenous shock to global financial markets. Human reactions, whether due to speculation or new facts, can have an immediate impact on these markets.”
Given these risks, she argues that the Bank of England needs to “take action” to address the financial stability risks associated with disclosure.
Although the premise is similar to science fiction, the cultural context has changed over the past year.
By way of background, U.S. lawmakers, including Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, are increasingly calling for government transparency regarding UAPs.
However, despite high-level political involvement, it seems unlikely that such information will be made public any time soon. On Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction market platform, a deal titled “Will the United States Confirm the Existence of Aliens by 2027?” was signed. It is trading at about 13 cents, implying a 13% probability.
Nevertheless, McCaw’s argument is essentially that the increased attention and high-impact consequences of such recognition within the organization justify advance planning.
From such a background, crypto slate modeled how an “ontological shock” scenario would play out for Bitcoin.
short term effect
When this tail event occurs, the immediate question for investors is: What will break first?
McCaw raised the possibility that if people “question the legitimacy of their government” and lose trust in government assets, they could turn to digital currencies like Bitcoin.
However, market mechanics suggest a different initial response. Alien exposure is essentially an uncertainty shock, and uncertainty shocks trade in two distinct stages.
In Phase 1, which can last from a few hours to a few days, the market faces the problem of “selling what can be sold.”
In the first period after a reliable, reality-rewriting announcement, the market typically does not behave like a rational discount machine. They act like risk managers and margin takers.
Three reasons suggest that Bitcoin is vulnerable right away, even if it later benefits from the “distrust hedge” narrative.
First, Bitcoin is liquid 24/7, which is the first pressure valve. When stock markets shut down and news headlines break, cryptocurrencies are where traders around the world can instantly reduce their exposure. As such, BTC does not automatically become a safe haven, but a frequent source of “instant liquidity.”
Second, correlation increases when everyone avoids risk together.
The IMF has repeatedly documented that the interconnection between crypto and stock markets has become stronger. This means that market returns and volatility spillovers can increase, especially during times of stress, and reduce diversification when you need it most.
Third, volatility does not involve civilizational-scale surprises.
As of mid-January 2026, the VIX (an indicator of the implicit volatility of US stocks and the most watched in the market) is in the mid-10% range. If volatility is revised upward sharply due to disclosure, risk limits will be tightened, VaR (value at risk) shocks will spread, and leveraged positions will be unwound.
In such moments, the “digital gold” narrative often loses out in terms of “reduce your total exposure now.”
Frankly, the initial move is likely to be risk-off and Bitcoin will be treated as high beta by many macro desks.
Long-term implications for gold and Bitcoin
It’s only in Phase 2, which can last anywhere from a few weeks to a few months, that trading moves into what McCaw envisions as a “trust premium.”
After the initial scramble, the question changes from “What is a liquid?” “What’s legal?”
If confirmation of non-human intelligence is interpreted as evidence that governments are not fully transparent or in control, sections of the public and investor class may begin to demand assets that are less closely associated with state credibility.
That is where Bitcoin could plausibly transition from “sold for liquidity” to “bought for exit options.”
In this case, this disclosure could create a lasting mistrust of financial institutions, forcing some investors to seek assets that are borderless, self-custodial, and cannot be claimed by any bank.
Once capital controls and emergency measures become part of the political response, even for a short period of time, the narrative of “censorship resistance” becomes more than just branding. It becomes a risk management function.
But McCaw makes an important point about traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
She suggests that the gold scarcity narrative will face theoretical challenges if the market assumes that spaceflight capabilities could expand the supply of the precious metal (through asteroid mining or new materials science).
In that context, Bitcoin faces no such physical risks because its scarcity is mathematically enforced. Essentially, the 21 million hard cap for top crypto protocols remains unchanged.
Therefore, in a world where the physical constraints of the universe are suddenly up for debate, the rigid and unwavering certainty of Bitcoin’s code could command a huge premium.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
