Gold and silver just hit new highs as investors flee government bonds, but Bitwise research claims this “gold first, Bitcoin second” rotation could slow and go parabolic. BTC It will rise in the next 4-7 months.
summary
- gold Silver hit record highs and set a new peak in market cap as macro stress and Fed-related scandals funneled money into hard assets before flowing into Bitcoin.
- Bitwise’s Andre Dragos says Granger’s test shows gold leading Bitcoin by 4-7 months, while Matt Hogan says it’s spotty. BTC Since 2024, ETFs have absorbed more than 100% of new supply.
- Deribit options data shows traders are loading high strikes BTC The call and long volatility structure runs through March 2026 and targets an upside move that could rival gold’s 65% surge in 2025.
Global precious metals markets reached unprecedented levels this week, with gold and silver hitting record highs, according to market data and industry analysts, who suggest this performance could signal conditions for a potential Bitcoin rally.
Gold vs. Bitcoin rally debate continues until 2026
According to Gold Price data, gold has surpassed the psychological threshold per ounce and silver has surpassed significant levels, with market capitalization hitting a record high for the first time. Industry experts predict that gold prices could rise further.
Market observers say the surge in hard assets reflects investors’ move away from government bonds amid heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty.
Bitcoin surpassed its all-time high during the same period, but its movements appeared subdued compared to precious metals.
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Andre Dragos, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said the gold price acts as a leading indicator for the crypto market. Through statistical causality tests, Dragosh demonstrated that gold tends to predict Bitcoin’s movements with a lag of four to seven months.
According to Dragosh’s analysis, this “gold-to-bitcoin rotation” pattern suggests that institutional investors initially seek refuge in gold, then move to digital assets once their risk appetite stabilizes.
Analyst Sminston noted that while gold is in a “parabolic price discovery” phase, Bitcoin is only in the early stages of a corresponding change.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan compared the current Bitcoin market to the 2025 bull market for gold. Hogan explained that gold’s parabolic rise was caused by supply depletion due to years of large purchases by central banks.
Since Spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched in the U.S. in January 2024, these products have purchased more than 100% of the new supply, Hogan said. He said that while the price of Bitcoin is being held down by selling by long-term holders, it could undergo a vertical revaluation if these sellers run out of holdings, similar to the case with gold.
A recent criminal investigation involving the head of the Federal Reserve has reportedly affected the stability of the dollar. Market analysts point out that gold, as a major safe-haven asset, reacts immediately, while Bitcoin attracts capital after the initial market shock has been absorbed.
At Deribit, traders are betting on a high strike call in March and an even higher strike call in subsequent months, according to options market data. Analysts note that if the historical correlation with gold continues, Bitcoin’s short-term target is well above current levels. According to market analysts, this represents a percentage increase similar to the performance of silver, which tends to outperform gold at the end of historically bullish physical commodity markets.
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