Bitcoin price surprised the cryptocurrency community last week by breaking through a resistance level around $94,000. This has raised questions about whether this is simply a bear market rally or whether the bulls are back on track. Here’s what CryptoQuant, who previously called it a bear market, had to say about the latest Bitcoin price rally.
Despite improving conditions, BTC remains in bear market: CryptoQuant
On Friday, January 16, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated in a recent report that Bitcoin demand conditions are becoming less negative following the recent rally above $97,000. These on-chain observations come weeks after the company said that the apparent demand for BTC at the time was pointing to the start of a bear market.
Confirmation of a bear market came after Bitcoin price fell below its 365-day moving average, a level that historically determines bullish and bearish phases. However, the top cryptocurrency has been on an upward trajectory since late November 2025, when it rose about 21% before falling below this level.
Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant noted in a research report that BTX price is approaching its 365-day moving average but has yet to recover the technical level, which currently stands at around $101,000. Additionally, the analysis firm mentioned acts as a “regime watchdog” during bear markets, triggering price rejections before falling again, as seen in past cycles.
In addition to the technical hurdles, CryptoQuant noted that while Bitcoin demand conditions have improved “to some extent,” they still remain market bearish. “While U.S. spot indicators such as Coinbase Premium briefly turned positive, U.S. ETFs only paused their net selling after offloading approximately 54,000 BTC in November rather than showing sustained accumulation,” the company added.
CryptoQuant also highlighted that on-chain spot demand continues to decline, with apparent demand falling by approximately 67,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund inflows largely remained below levels associated with a sustained bull market recovery.
At the same time, increased BTC exchange inflows do not spread optimism, but rather increase downside risks. According to data from CryptoQuant, transfers to centralized exchanges have increased to a seven-day average of around 39,000 BTC, the highest level since late November. According to the company, this is a clear sign of increasing sell-side pressure following the relief rally.
Looking at this, it appears that market conditions are improving somewhat in terms of price, but Bitcoin still appears to be in a bearish cycle less than two months after it began.
Bitcoin price at a glance
As of this writing, the BTC price is around $95,200, with no significant movement over the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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