Bitcoin started trading above $90,000 in 2026, but that move is starting to be tested.
Experts from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode warn that the sustainability of the rally over time is not guaranteed.
In this scenario, Bitcoin price is ‘facing a test of resilience’the market is evaluating whether the current move can be consolidated or if it is a temporary pullback.
As detailed in the company’s recent report mentioned above, “Current market levels are within a dense group of long-term holder supplies that accumulated between April and July 2025, a period characterized by a sustained distribution close to the cycle maximum.”
What does the heatmap show?
In practice, this means that the price will move within an area where large amounts of BTC are concentrated in the hands of long-term investors who have historically tended to sell at this level.
As seen in the heatmap of the base cost distribution for long-term holders, the rebound after November 2025 repeatedly decelerates at the lower end of this range. Approximately ranges from $93,000 to $110,000as shown below:
The area highlighted in yellow indicates supply concentration of long-term holders, and the price encountered resistance On repeat occasions.
Every attempt to advance towards that area created new selling pressure, preventing BTC from consolidating a more structural recovery. According to the report, this region has consistently acted as a transition barrier between correction phases and longer bullish periods.
Therefore, the market is once again facing a significant test as prices are again under pressure against this superior supply. It remains difficult to absorb the distribution of long-term holders. This is a necessary condition to confirm a change in the broader trend.
Selling pressure from long-term holders is reduced
Meanwhile, Glassnode analysts warn of selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH). begin to ease. These investors who have held BTC for more than 5 months continue to sell, but at a rate much lower than that observed in Q3 and Q4 of 2025.
This is despite the continuation of the distribution. Sales intensity is decreasingas seen in the following graph.
The chart shows how much BTC long-term holders have (orange area) and the price of BTC (black line). When the orange area rises, it indicates accumulation (long-term investors should not sell). When it goes down, it signals a distribution (they lock in profits). Generally, accumulation maintains a bullish cycle, and strong area declines usually appear near the top of the market.
More directly, for BTC to begin a more sustainable rise, It is necessary that the amount of BTC in the hands of long-term investors exceeds the amount they sell.
This type of change was already observed in previous cycles and was a precursor to a more robust and sustained increase. For now, the market is in a transition phase, and although there are signs that selling pressure is easing, a change in trend is not yet confirmed.
Bitcoin ETFs are on a stable trend
Additionally, capital flows associated with Bitcoin ETFs are showing signs of stabilizing after months of heavy outflows. According to a Glassnode report, long-term selling pressure is starting to dissipate.
This means that large investors They are gradually regaining exposure through ETFs beyond short-term operations..
In this context, institutional demand is acting more as a price support factor than as a driver of significant upside, making it more exposed to derivatives developments and the immediate liquidity of the market in the short term.
As CriptoNoticias explained, the performance of an ETF directly affects the price of the underlying assets. For its operation, the ETF administrator needs to purchase BTC to back its outstanding shares.
As a result, when the demand for Bitcoin ETFs increases, these companies enter the market to acquire BTC. If the opposite happens, They sell their surplus, which puts downward pressure on prices.
Low volatility in the Bitcoin market
Bitcoin market volatility remains low, reflecting short-term calm, but it does not mean risks have been eliminated.
According to the Glassnode report, “This does not indicate that uncertainty has disappeared, but rather that risk is being deferred.” In that sense, the options market suggests that investors are not expecting sharp moves in the near term. but, They recognize that stronger adjustments may come later.
This behavior is reflected in the ATM’s implied volatility graph (have enough money) BTC options on Deribit (derivatives exchange), i.e. options whose strike price is very close to the current market price.
Here you can see how the one-week volatility forecast (red line), which is most sensitive to certain events, is suppressed. On the other hand, the 1-month data (orange line) shows more stability.
For longer periods of 3 months (yellow) and 6 months (green), volatility changes more slowly. Reinforces the idea that markets transfer uncertainty over time. In parallel, the black line represents the spot price of BTC in dollars, which allows us to compare whether price changes are accompanied by an increase in expected volatility.
Where will Bitcoin go?
More broadly, Glassnode’s analysis shows that this volatility compression does not correspond to a clearer scenario, but rather to the current position of the market.
When volatility is artificially suppressed, changes in conditions often cause more sudden reactions. Therefore, although prices appear to be stable in the short term, underlying risks still exist, and greater risks may materialize if unexpected catalysts occur.
Looking ahead to the coming months, Glassnode analysts note:
As we look to the first quarter (of 2026), the fundamental outlook becomes increasingly positive. With selling pressures easing and volatility risk being deferred rather than eliminated, relatively modest capital inflows could once again trigger disproportionate price reactions. If spot accumulation and ETF-driven institutional demand continue to recover, the current correction phase could become the basis for a new trend extension.
Glassnode, an on-chain Bitcoin analytics company.
And to answer the title, this is not about making specific price predictions. Rather, it is important to interpret what the market structure indicates.
Bitcoin still has potential risks and subdued volatility, but with reduced selling pressure and a gradual recovery in institutional demand, Open the door to more powerful movements Despite relatively low capital inflows.
In this framework, on-chain data does not indicate structural weaknesses; Integration and definition phase.
Therefore, the current leveling may not be a brake, but rather the basis on which the price will try to build the next part of the trend. The key to this is: The market manages to absorb the remaining supply of long-term holders.
