Expectations are starting to become clear about who President Donald Trump will choose to replace current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.
Trump’s preferred candidate for Fed chair is expected to be announced in January, according to prediction markets.
The probabilities generated by the prediction platform indicate which name the market prefers. So the top two names are:
- Kevin Hassett: 39%
- Kevin Warsh: 31%
Other candidates and market possibilities include:
- Christopher Waller: 14%
- Rick Leader: 4%
- Scott Bessent: 2%
- Michelle Bowman: 2%
- Judy Shelton: 2%
Donald Trump has recently become increasingly vocal about Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, recently claiming that the possibility of firing him remains on the table.
On the other hand, the market forecasts not only factor in presidential appointments, but also expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in January. Accordingly:
- Probability of rate cut of 50 basis points or more: 1%
- Probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut: 11%
- No interest rate change: 88%
*This is not investment advice.
