In today’s newsletter, Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner at Pantera Capital, shares his predictions for 2026 on cryptocurrencies, real-world asset tokenization, and AI.
Programming note: This will be the last newsletter of 2025. We look forward to seeing you in 2026. We are also selecting third-party contributors for next year, so if you are a global thought leader with research you would like to share, please get in touch.
A big thank you to all of this year’s contributors and to all of our newsletter subscribers. We are looking forward to 2026. All signs point to an exciting year in the digital asset space.
– Sarah Morton
Cryptocurrency Outlook in 2026: Real-world assets, AI security, and the next wave of IPOs
In 2025, the U.S. government appointed a crypto czar, created a Bitcoin strategic stockpile, formed a digital asset working group, and elected a new Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman who embraces innovation. In Congress, the GENIUS Act provided a clear stablecoin regulatory framework and facilitated a $100 billion increase in stablecoin demand.
Coinbase becomes the first crypto company added to the S&P 500, nine blockchain companies have launched IPOs, Robinhood has launched tokenized stocks, and Vanguard has lifted its ban on crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
To 2026.
Real world assets (RWA) are in full swing
As of December 15, 2025, that amount amounted to approximately 14% of the total value locked (TVL) of $16.6 billion out of decentralized finance (DeFi TVL $118 billion).
prediction:
- Government debt and private credit could at least double.
- Tokenized stocks and equities could grow even faster once the anticipated “innovation exemption” under the SEC’s “Project Crypto” is introduced.
- One unexpected sector will catch fire: carbon credits, mineral interests, or energy projects. This sector is likely to be characterized by fragmented liquidity, global distribution, and lack of standards, which blockchain-based markets will help resolve.
AI will revolutionize on-chain security
AI security and blockchain development tools are getting frighteningly good. Real-time fraud detection, 95% accurate Bitcoin labeling of transactions, instant smart contract debugging is here, and we detect millions of blockchain vulnerabilities.
prediction: Imagine a greater shift to on-chain intelligence with deterministic and verifiable rules taking over smart contract-based governance. The application scans your code in near real-time, instantly identifying logic bugs and exploits, and providing instant debugging feedback. The next big unicorn will be an innovative on-chain security company that increases safety by 100x.
Prediction markets are an acquisition target
With $28 billion traded in the first 10 months of 2025, prediction markets are consolidating around institutional infrastructure. ATH reached $2.3 billion for the week of October 20th.
prediction: The industry deal is worth more than $1 billion and does not involve Polymarket or Calci. Winning platforms build internal liquidity rails with built-in market discovery intelligence that points out where your money is hiding and why. Forget about shiny new buttons. It’s all about giving users superpowers like instant access to hidden pools, smarter routing, predictive order flow, and more.
Sports-specific platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel have gone mainstream, partnering with media outlets to deliver real-time odds. New entrants like sports-focused NoVig will expand their presence vertically and new startups will emerge as APAC is a region to watch.
AI becomes your personal crypto co-pilot
Usage of consumer AI platforms will skyrocket as systems mature, delivering hyper-personalized experiences that meet customized expectations. Seamless integration makes it easy to use advanced AI, and your usage goes from clunky to clunky in an instant.
prediction: Platforms like Surf.ai will engage people from individuals interested in cryptocurrencies to active traders in 2026 through intuitive advanced AI models, proprietary crypto datasets, and multi-step workflow agents. I believe that our sophisticated technology and accessible design positions Surf as the go-to crypto research tool, delivering instant, on-chain-backed market insights four times faster than other similar platforms emerging as popular options.
Big banks gear up: stablecoin loom anchored in G7
A group of 10 major banks is in the early stages of considering the issuance of stablecoins by a consortium pegged to G7 currencies. Financial institutions are determining whether stablecoins across the industry have the potential to deliver the benefits of digital currency to people and institutions in a compliant and risk-managed manner. Meanwhile, a group of 10 European banks is investigating the issuance of a euro-pegged stablecoin.
prediction: A consortium of large banks plans to release its own stablecoin (regardless of whether these pilot projects materialize in 2026 or another consortium).
Privacy, payments, and perpetuity: the institutional trio
Privacy technologies are booming in institutional use due to the combination of transparency and confidentiality of Zama, Canton, and other protocols, but have not found traction or scalability in retail use. Stablecoins currently stand at $310 billion, more than doubling in market capitalization since 2023 and marking 25 consecutive months of expansion. Perpetual swap contracts already account for around 78% of cryptocurrency derivatives trading volume, and the gap between parse and spot options continues to widen.
prediction: When it comes to privacy, the gap between institutional investors and retailers will widen in 2026. Stablecoins have a long-term path to over $2 trillion, reaching at least $500 billion next year, and perpetual coin momentum will continue into 2026.
The year of the biggest crypto IPOs in history
There have already been 335 IPOs in the US in 2025, an overall increase of 55% from 2024. Many of them were crypto-friendly, including nine blockchain IPOs. This includes crypto-native companies like Circle Internet Group, which is set to launch on May 27, 2025, and crypto-inclusive companies like Special Acquisition Purpose Companies (SPACS). For example, Bitcoin Infrastructure Acquisition Corp was founded on December 2, 2025.
prediction: 2026 will be an even bigger year for digital asset listings. According to Coinbase, 76% of companies plan to add tokenized assets in 2026, with some aiming for more than 5% of their total portfolios. Morpho serves as an example of a protocol with a TVL of $8.6 billion in November 2025.
Institutional macro perspective
As of December 15th, 17.867% of Bitcoin holdings were in the hands of public and private companies, ETFs, and countries. In 2026, cryptocurrencies will be integrated into mainstream platforms and financial rails will be upgraded, challenging today’s incumbents.
prediction: 2026 is not about hype and memes. It will be about integration, real-world compliance, and the movement of institutional capital driven by public market liquidity.
Read the full article here
– Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner, Pantera Capital
Please continue reading
- The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) announced that it has conditionally approved five national trust bank charter applications.
- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation proposes the first stablecoin regulations in the United States.
- Wall Street continues to move on-chain. JPMorgan Chase has launched a tokenized money market fund (MMF).
