Bitcoin’s sharp fall from all-time highs has investors searching for direction, and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said it may take longer for market confidence to fully return.
Novogratz said price trends, rather than sentiment, give the clearest signal about current market conditions. He pointed out that Bitcoin has been in a long-term battle around the $100,000 level, explaining that this level is a psychological level that is attracting significant buying interest.
According to Novogratz, a large amount of Bitcoin accumulated above $100,000, and the market made several attempts to maintain that level. Once the low was finally broken, the selling accelerated rapidly and the price fell to the low $80,000 range in a short period of time. He said this type of movement typically reflects forced selling, stop loss activation, and new short positions entering the market.
Why $100,000 acts as resistance
Novogratz explained that once a key support level is broken, it often turns into resistance. In the case of Bitcoin, the $100,000 level is currently the zone where many investors who bought near the all-time high are considering exiting.
He explained that these “trapped” positions could delay an immediate recovery as a rally towards that level could create selling pressure. Historically, markets rarely come back straight through such significant resistance on the first try.
This move also coincides with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which Novogratz said recently ended.
There is a macro tailwind, but it will not lead to an immediate price increase.
Despite the short-term challenges, Novogratz remains positive about the broader environment for digital assets. He expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, potentially moving them closer to 2.5%, and that risk appetite could improve over time.
He also expressed confidence that clearer crypto laws are on the way in the United States. Novogratz said that coupled with the Middle East’s growing interest in blockchain infrastructure, the long-term case for tokenization of digital and real-world assets is stronger than ever.
However, he cautioned that industry growth will not automatically translate into an immediate increase in token prices. Building a global blockchain-based financial infrastructure, such as tokenized stocks and digital banking rails, is a multi-year process.
The market is likely to level off before the next rally.
It will take time to rebuild market depth. Novogratz said retail investors typically come back gradually with regular capital inflows, while institutional investors tend to intervene only when momentum clearly turns positive.
As a result, he expects a period of flat, relatively calm trading before the next big rally. The key will be where the market finds a sustainable bottom.
In his view, the next big rally will occur, but it will happen before the market overcomes oversupply and illiquidity.
