After hitting an all-time high of $126,000 last October, the consensus is heavily leaning toward another bear market for the price of Bitcoin. However, some analysts have shared that this will not happen in a straight line. But rather, there will be a brief relief rally that pushes prices higher before the bear market moves into the next phase. One of these analysts is TradingShot, who shared a ‘realistic’ price target that Bitcoin price could still reach before entering a full bear market.
Bitcoin’s recovery trend
trading shot analyze This is not to argue against the idea of a bear market, but rather to point out the fact that Bitcoin has not yet entered a new bull cycle. The analysis focused on the sell-off experienced by the cryptocurrency as it began to decline after hitting record highs. The analyst draws parallels between the current market structure and that seen in the market decline between January 20 and April 7, showing that both are part of a “channel up” formation.
Another interesting fact about the current trend is that, like the January-April trend, it has also completed a one-day MACD bullish crossover. This was a formation that showed a brief recovery last March, and there is a possibility that the same will happen this time as well.
Analysts explain that these rallies are known as counter-trend rallies and that another rally could be on the way. In this case, Bitcoin price is preparing to retest the low trend line, which could place the point of contact at a price level well above Bitcoin’s current trend.
a feasible goal
If this Bitcoin price countertrend rally actually occurs, TradingShot outlines two key goals the cryptocurrency could achieve: The first price is $95,850, which is consistent with the Fibonacci level of 0.382. This level becomes an important play as it is the rejection point of the April 2025 rally.
On top of this first goal is the second and final goal of $106,450. Interestingly, this target is outside the lower high trend line, but is still a viable option. This will occur when the Bitcoin price touches the 1D MA200. “This is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, target 2 of the April fractal and where the second consolidation occurred,” the analyst explains.
Featured image by Dall.E, chart by TradingView.com
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