Expectations of a US interest rate cut, rising structural demand and escalating global risks are pushing gold towards new all-time highs. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) ended November down nearly 20%, affected by reduced liquidity and an environment that has not yet reversed.
Analysts consulted said the divergence between the two assets responds to similar macroeconomic trends, but with different reaction times.
surely, Gold continues to rise after breaking through key resistance level. Gold ounces continue their bullish momentum after a period of compression.
In the following chart published on the TradingView community, we observe that the metal’s price is making higher lows, supported by an uptrend line that reinforces the structural strength of the current move.
This scenario suggests a continuation of the trend. The technical target is expected to be approximately $4,330. However, the possibility of previous setbacks is not excluded.
Macroeconomics boosts gold
The technical movement seen in gold ounces is consistent with Argentine analyst Emmanuel Juarez’s fundamental view. He argues that gold’s rise is in response to certain macroeconomic factors.
These developments include “an increased likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED), increased purchases of physical gold by central banks, and finally concerns of a tech bubble,” said an expert speaking with CriptoNoticias. In his opinion, This combination is favorable for metal demand As a traditional shelter.
A graph provided by analyst Juarez supports this view. In his analysis, Gold will likely bring fresh momentum daily and weekly This will take some time to break above the all-time high of $4,381.
“Prices have already broken past all-time highs, and the pattern of higher highs and higher lows suggests that price action will continue if buying pressure persists,” he said.
Bitcoin: Bearish pressure, loss of liquidity and upcoming crisis levels
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s performance stands in sharp contrast to that of metals. BTC accumulates monthly decline It is important that Juarez points out the cause. Liquidity drain from digital assets.
“The loss of capital in the crypto market mainly corresponds to the outflow of liquidity from Bitcoin. In November, the decline in BTC accumulated, which had a knock-on effect on small-capitalized digital currencies,” he explains.
The chart provided by Juarez shows that BTC is trapped in a medium-term bearish structure, descending from highs on the daily and 4-hour time frames.
All recovery attempts were halted in the supply zone that marked approximately $92,500. In this context, Mr. Juarez identifies a critical level. “The next important level to overcome is $93,150.” As you can see, breaking this resistance would invalidate the short-term bearish structure. and will open the door to a recovery movement. More lasting.
Meanwhile, analysts are warning of high prices for BTC. «Critical level 80,600; “If you lose this level, you will go to about $65,000,” he warns. This area coincides with weekly support at the $81,000 area and the lower range of the descending channel. Due to the current price slump, this scenario will continue.
Macro fundamentals strengthen the vulnerability of digital assets in the short term. Juarez points out that BTC is a “macro asset that is highly dependent on global liquidity.”
Therefore, if U.S. indexes continue to weaken or undergo a prolonged correction, capital flows will move into safe-haven assets. Makes it difficult to recover quickly The influence of the digital currency market is significant, he points out.
However, note that “BTC typically reacts with a lag of approximately 90 days compared to traditional market movements,” so the final rebound may take some time to stabilize.
There is a perception that Bitcoin has risks.
Venezuelan economist Aaron Olmos agrees that downward pressure on Bitcoin is more a response to risk perception than to technical issues with the protocol.
“Those who manage the flow of money in an environment like the one we are experiencing may prefer to put some of their money in gold rather than Bitcoin, because historically gold has been a safe asset,” he told CriptoNoticias.
For Olmos, Bitcoin volatility and the wide diversification of related financial products Influencing behavior in times of uncertainty.
Experts point out that despite the setbacks: Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain intact. “The network continues to function the same way, blocks are verified within the set time and nothing happens. “This is not a network operations issue, it’s a flow and awareness issue,” he points out.
It also highlights that large institutional investors continue to accumulate assets over the long term. “Regardless of everything we’re seeing, they keep buying because they know it’s a price correction and it’s going to get better,” he stresses.
Two different trends, same macroeconomic background
The current divergence between gold movements and Bitcoin movements is explained by the global situation regarding risk, liquidity, and monetary policy expectations.
As gold rises, supported by defensive flows and increased institutional demand, BTC faces a restrictive environment When liquidity shrinks and investors’ priority is preserving short-term value.
But for Juarez, this gap is temporary. As you can see, if interest rates are cut on December 10th and institutional investment in the technology sector continues, “we could see a recovery in U.S. stock indexes, which in turn could lead to a gradual recovery in the crypto market.”
Olmos agrees that the current amendments do not change the long-term vision. “This is part of a historical movement cycle that Bitcoin has been exhibiting,” he says.
According to his reading, the market is experiencing a moment of distortion due to geopolitical factors. and by typical financial behavior.
All this points to the gap between gold and Bitcoin being likely to persist unless doubts about the US economy remain and interest rate cuts materialize.
Gold advances. Bitcoin will be fixed. But experts say both continue to respond to the same macroeconomic cycles. Just at different times.
(Tag translation) Analysis and research
