Bitcoin is trading near $91,000, but the market setup is starting to show one of the clearest risk signals this month. Prices have been rising within a narrow structure after a sharp drop, but on-chain data and derivatives positioning now indicate pressure is building below the surface.
When these conditions come together, the market often moves faster than expected. Traders are paying close attention as multiple indicators are trending in the same direction.
A large bear flag pattern is setting a risk window
Bitcoin prices plummeted from November 11th to November 21st, forming a long downside that formed a “pole”. Since then, prices have been slowly rising within a narrow channel. This creates a “flag”.
Pole and flag is a continuous pattern. Set up the pole with a strong fall. A slow, tight rebound forms a flag. Breaking the lower trend line often results in a repeat of the previous drop size.
Want more token insights like this? Subscribe to editor Harsh Notariya’s daily crypto newsletter here
Bitcoin Risk Flag: TradingView
Previous falls have measured 25%, and flags typically reflect that movement. This gives you a clean risk window that allows for deeper slides if support fails. This structure does not itself confirm a failure, but it does give a clear technical warning.
Increased risk for both spot and derivatives
On-chain conditions increase the downside risk flagged by the pattern.
The total amount of BTC held by short-term holders has increased from approximately 2.44 million BTC on November 13th to approximately 2.67 million BTC (an increase of nearly 10%), the highest level in six months. These are low-conviction coins, typically bought within the past few months, and sold as soon as volatility spikes. Increasing supply of short-term holders during a weak rally often means more “fast money” heading for the exits together.
Increased supply of short-term holders: Glassnode
Derivatives also place points in the same way.
Binance’s BTC/USDT liquidation map shows long liquidation leverage of about $2.24 billion below price, while short above price is only about $536 million. In other words, about 81% of the current liquidation risk is in long positions, and longs have about four times as many potential liquidations as shorts.
Long Squeeze Risk Build: Coinglass
A clear move below the current flag support (highlighted later) will not only push the spot price lower. It can also trigger a chain of forced long exits, amplifying the downside price movement that starts the pattern.
Key Bitcoin Price Levels Will Determine Whether a Breakdown Occurs
The first key level is $89,100. A clean drop below it will break the flag and open a squeeze zone. If this happens, the next support will be near $80,500. If the pressure continues, a full flag extension would point to a 25% increase to $66,600.
The entire risk is eliminated above $95,900. This level is above the midpoint of the flag, indicating that buyers are regaining momentum. In that case, Bitcoin could attempt a move towards $107,400.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView
Bitcoin price is currently located between these two lines. A clean break below $89,100 confirms the risk. It will be removed if it exceeds $95,900.
The post “Bitcoin’s Significant Price Risks ‘Flag’ Raised — Here’s Why a 25% Drop is Possible” was first published on BeInCrypto.
