Bitcoin’s price performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 has been a major source of concern for the cryptocurrency industry, and rightly so. At some point in the last few weeks, it looked like the top cryptocurrency would finish the year deep in the red zone.
Over the past week, Bitcoin price has shown healthy signs of recovery, regaining the significant $90,000 support level. According to a cryptocurrency expert, the market leader may be performing better than the current charts indicate.
How is BTC already priced?
In a post on social media platform This is a question Bitcoin investors constantly face.
According to macro analysts, the flagship cryptocurrency is pricing in the weakest global growth outlook since 2022 (marked by Federal Reserve tightening and the collapse of FTX) and 2020 (a period when the Covid-19 pandemic was at its peak).
Dragosch said that using a series of key macro studies, he was able to determine the level of global growth expectations that Bitcoin is already pricing into. “Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” Bitwise researchers wrote.
Dragosch added:
Personally, I tend to be a macro contrarian because Bitcoin may be underestimating or exceeding the prevailing macro outlook. The prices of all assets are inherently macro sentiment. I think that’s also where most alphas are made.
As mentioned earlier, the last time macro expectations were this pessimistic was 2020 and 2022. Bitcoin underperformed macro expectations before mounting a strong rebound. Dragosch believes a replication of this scenario is currently underway.
Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X“Global growth expectations are expected to accelerate from here, following previous monetary stimulus, which points to a re-acceleration through 2026,” the head of European research at Bitwise noted.
Dragosch noted that the last time there was such asymmetric risk reward was during the pandemic, when the price of Bitcoin first collapsed due to shocks in March 2020 and then surged sixfold by the end of the year. This macro setup can be likened to a ‘coiled spring or a ball in water’.
Bitcoin’s current trajectory appears to be taking the form of a “coiled spring,” according to macro analysts. This means that the Bitcoin price is poised for violent moves after being compressed for a period of time. Dragosch concluded his analysis by saying that investors are not optimistic enough.
Bitcoin price at a glance
As of this writing, the BTC price is around $90,880, with no significant movement over the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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