From net flows to personal funding, there are better indicators to describe this bullish cycle than “the numbers are going up.” Bitcoin (BTC) price movements are now driven not only by classic on-chain signals, but also by off-chain flows and leverage.
Since the launch of the US Spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the variables that explain Bitcoin’s crashes and crashes have been quietly recalibrated. On-chain metrics now represent how tight a spring is, rather than whether someone is pulling the trigger.
The triggers are macro shocks transmitted through ETF flows, perpetual swap funding, stablecoin liquidity, and institutional investor portfolios.
Here are 5 signals that really move BTC in the ETF era.
ETF net flows were the main reason for the increase.
A joint market review by Gemini and Glassnode published in February 2025 estimated that spot ETFs have accumulated over 515,000 BTC, which is approximately 2.4 times the amount issued by miners during the same period.
Furthermore, a study by Mieszko Mazur and Efstatios Polizos found that inflows into US spot ETFs were the single most important factor in predicting Bitcoin valuation, and were more explanatory than traditional cryptocurrency variables.
In the first quarter of 2024, there were approximately $12.1 billion in net inflows into new U.S. spot ETFs, coinciding with BTC hitting a new all-time high.
As BTC fell from over $126,000 to the low $80,000 range, the net redemption amount in November 2025 was approximately $3.7 billion, the largest monthly outflow since its launch.
Glassnode’s November report said that softening ETF flows were the main reason Bitcoin fell below key cost threshold bands, with spot order flow “very sensitive” to relatively small incremental flows in a thin market.
The $500 million IBIT spill day is now as meaningful as the movements of on-chain whales.
PERP funding and futures-based leverage cycle revealed
Derivatives data from major exchanges such as BitMEX, Binance, and Bybit shows that funds have been concentrated around neutral bands this cycle, with far fewer extreme crashes than in 2017 or 2021. Still, the spikes are still in line with local highs and liquidations.
Currently, funding is balanced at approximately 8% to 12% per annum. A spike much above that precedes a local high, while a large negative financing indicates a cycle low and a forced unwind.
A 2025 SSRN paper by Emre Inan found that permanent funding of BTC on Binance and Bybit indicates predictability of funding rate rather than price return. Nevertheless, this helps predict the next funding and adds more data to check the next BTC movement.
As ETF flows turned slightly negative in November, Glassnode observed a decline in futures open interest, cycle-low funding, and a spike in downside options.
Price impulses now appear to be a joint product of ETF flows and derivatives positioning. If ETF inflows surge but funding remains subdued, that’s sustained demand.
If the ETF’s flow stagnates while its funding spikes above 20% annually, it will take advantage of the chasing momentum and unwind quickly.
Stablecoin liquidity remains on native rails
The stablecoin supply and exchange balance remains closely aligned with BTC price movements.
Rapid increases in stablecoin supply and rising exchange balances have historically preceded or accompanied major BTC rallies, but flat or negative stablecoin growth has seen corrections on the front.
According to CEX.IO’s January 2025 review, the supply of stablecoins increased by about 59% in 2024, reaching about 1% of the US dollar money supply, and remittances reached $27.6 trillion in the same year.
The strongest rallies occur during periods of strong ETF inflows and expanding stablecoin supply. If both are net negative, the downside movement will be faster and deeper.
ETF flows are the gateway for financial institutions, and stablecoins set how much firepower crypto-native traders can bring to the move.
The holder system has evolved, not disappeared.
Glassnode and Avenir’s June 2025 report notes that while the share of BTC held by long-term holders reached historic highs through early 2025, tightening the float market, the “hot capital share” of short-term, price-sensitive supply rose to around 38%, making the market highly sensitive to new capital flows.
Additionally, Glassnode’s November report links recent price movements to long-term holder (LTH) behavior. BTC’s fall below the key realized price range coincided with LTH starting to be distributed to ETF and CEX demand, weakening support.
21Shares claims that before 2024, on-chain cohorts and cost-based metrics alone could tell the story of the Bitcoin cycle. After ETFs, you need to combine them with ETF flows, derivatives, and macros.
Looking at where supply is, LTH and STH, profit bands, and realized prices is a way to understand how resilient the tape is, and combine that with data from ETFs and derivatives to explain why the same dollar purchase moves BTC more or less than before.
Global liquidity and real yields are transmitted through ETFs
The ETF era has strengthened the link between Bitcoin and macro liquidity and real yields. A September 2025 analysis from Ainslie Wealth found that BTC historically responds to changes in the composite global liquidity index with a beta of 5x to 9x, while gold has a beta of around 2x to 3x and equities around 1x.
The 2025 Macro Finance paper concludes that Bitcoin is behaving more like a high-beta macro asset, with increased sensitivity to interest rate expectations and liquidity shocks.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank argue that it will be more difficult to recover from the current drawdown as Bitcoin is now deeply embedded in institutional investor portfolios through ETFs, and macro headwinds and rising real yields have reduced the risk of these portfolios.
21Shares links the fall decline to tight liquidity and waning expectations for rate cuts, and positions ETF flows as a communication channel between macro and BTC.
Movements in interest rate cut odds, the dollar liquidity index, and US real yields are now reflected almost immediately in ETF flows and fed back into spot and derivatives.
Joint system determines direction
The five signals are cogs in the same machine.
ETF flows set the benchmark bid by institutional investors. PERP funding reveals whether its bids are amplified or countered by leverage. A stablecoin’s liquidity determines whether crypto-native traders can absorb or front-run institutional flows. The holder method sets the elasticity of the tape. Macro liquidity governs the availability and cost of capital, which are reflected in all four.
When all five are in place, BTC will rip. When they shift, BTC crashes.
The era of ETFs has brought Bitcoin closer to a traditional risk asset with cryptocurrency-specific plumbing. If Bitcoin’s market cap reaches $3 trillion, it will be because all five signals were sent in the same direction.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
