The recent rally in Bitcoin (BTC) price toward $91,000 has increased expectations about a possible return to bullish momentum. However, technical and on-chain readings indicate that this move is occurring within a market that still lacks conviction.
As the graph below shows, Bitcoin’s rebound occurs after a few days of rest in the USD 80,000 area. No clear signs of a sustained breakout to the upsideat least until now.
Market research and analysis firm Glassnode warns that “Bitcoin remains structurally vulnerable.” The company said the data reveals “loss rates for short-term holders, reduced returns for long-term holders, and realized losses comparable to those at the beginning of the cycle.”
The consulting firm also stressed that liquidity continues to decline and “unless demand strengthens, the risk of retesting the real market average ($81,000) remains high.”
The outlook for derivatives is less positive. Glassnode notes that “open interest in futures is being resolved, funding rates are neutral, and leverage has disappeared for most assets.”
Meanwhile, the options market is seeing strong buying interest near $84,000, subdued selling demand near $100,000, and high implied volatility. They reflect defensive positioning.
“Bulish flows continue to be sold, while bearish protection stabilizes,” the firm notes.
Bitcoin price is mixed with harmful factors
Analysis of “CryptoOnChain” by the CryptoQuant community agrees on the overall deterioration. This expert describes a “toxic combination” between high leverage and weak demand.
In his opinion, “instead of mitigating risk, traders are actively buying the dip against the prevailing trend.” However, this action does not promote recovery due to strong selling pressure. As you can see, “aggressive sellers dominate the order book.” Therefore, analysts conclude: If there is a rebound, it will face aggressive selling.
The chart below shows that even though the price of Bitcoin rose to over $110,000 before falling to $86,900, the indicatorTaker buy-sell ratio (a measure of who is in control in short-term markets) has almost always remained below 1.
This reveals that aggressive sales and weakening demand remain dominant. In recent months, the indicator has fallen further; Selling pressure was confirmed as prices fell.
Bitcoin ETFs also play an important role
The Ecoinometrics report adds two possible trajectories. These are driven by movements in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that trade in the United States. The company remembers that these vehicles have a special impact on the prices of Satoshi Nakamoto’s works.
In a negative scenario, if capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs continue to hit new lows, Coin price could head towards $60,000 For the next 30 days.
This “will undo much of the post-US election momentum and put pressure on companies, especially those with large amounts of Bitcoin on their balance sheets,” Ecoinometrics warned.
As such, the company warns that as long as capital flows into these investment vehicles continue to deteriorate, “the price of Bitcoin will continue on a downward trajectory.”
Bitcoin increases downside liquidity in the short term
On a technical level, analyst Ted Pillows notes that Bitcoin offers “more downside liquidity in the short term.” If the price falls again, we could see an increase in buy orders concentrated between $80,000 and $83,000. Bullish liquidity is concentrated in the area between $92,000 and $93,000.
According to experts, if the digital asset can maintain its price above USD 89,000, it will most likely gain higher liquidity. But if you lose $85,000the bearish liquidity will be wiped out before the eventual rebound.
In other words, a Bitcoin return of over $90,000 is Cattle running Please come back. Fragility of the current environment, loss of liquidity, increased leverage due to aggressive selling, and still deteriorating capital flows They keep Bitcoin in a defensive framework.
That way, until demand recovers and prices rise above reasonable cost levels again, The risk of further corrections will continue to prevail.
