The Bitcoin (BTC) market has experienced a technical rally in recent days, with traders interpreting it as a “rebound effect” after weeks of downward pressure. But for Venezuelan financial analyst David Battaglia, the move still does not define a change in trends.
“Liquidity is starting to leak,” he said. “There is a sense of relief in the market,” he said, but quickly warned that “the bullish structure is not yet complete.” According to his vision, the current scenario is Do not confuse with sustained recoveryBecause “this is not peace, but the calm before the roar.”
“There is a need for some caution,” he said, recalling that there has been “a very negative situation and correction environment” in recent days, with “lettuce hands”, or large-scale liquidations taking place among the weakest investors.
“At this point, we believe the market will stabilize heading into December,” he said. and he pointed out that BTC is on “discount” so you should use it by all investors.
In fact, the price of Bitcoin has fallen more than 30% from its all-time high of $126,200. Crossing the $100,000 mark in a few weeks And back to the $80,000 area, which it hasn’t left to date. This can be seen in the following graph.
Bitcoin vulnerabilities and possible rebound effect
Battaglia’s comments come as technical and derivative indicators continue to reflect vulnerabilities in the Bitcoin market.
Last week’s decline pushed Bitcoin into the $80,000 region, according to data from analytics firm Glassnode. Deepened the correction stage It introduced the currency “further into areas where demand has historically tended to be strong.”
Glassnode notes that while the prevailing trend remains bearish, recent defensive strength in the mid-$80,000 range is bearish. suggests the possibility of stabilization (and even Bitcoin’s “rebound effect”) if selling pressure continues to ease.
Momentum indicators also offer mixed signals. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained in the oversold zone before turning higher, a pattern that suggests “pressure continues but signs of exhaustion are emerging.”
In derivatives, Glassnode highlights that cumulative value of futures and perpetuity (CVD) remains significantly negative. This indicates that the stable open interest indicates that the decline is due to liquidations and unwinding of positions; This is not a new leveraged bearish bet.
Glassnode concludes that Bitcoin continues its “controlled decline” towards highly oversold and stressed levels, with a bottom structure likely forming between $84,000 and $90,000.
This action is consistent with a recent report from CriptoNoticias that indicates that both dolphins and whales have begun to identify potential “local bottoms” in prices and are gradually increasing their accumulation activity. Although these movements usually anticipate a more stable phase, However, trends won’t change anytime soon.
“Dark” market
For David Battaglia, analysis is not limited to the price of Bitcoin, but also extends to trends in assets that are considered relevant to assessing the risk environment, such as stocks of technology companies and stocks related to digital mining. These include Strategy, BlackRock, MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, Rigetti Computing, IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, Intel, Tesla, and more.
According to analysts, these components: Provide additional liquidity signals and market perception. “Those who understand are not distracted. They are preparing for the next wave,” he pointed out.
The macroeconomic outlook adds to this sensitivity. Andre Chalegre, a Brazilian analyst consulted by CriptoNoticias, explains that short-term Bitcoin trends are conditioned by the uncertainty that arose after the prolonged government shutdown in the United States, which left key data for monetary policy “dark.”
“We’ve had a long period without data, but this data is critical to lowering rates,” he said. It also highlights that the probability of a rate cut in December suddenly changed after the resumption on November 13th.
But “in my opinion, we’re still in the middle of the game,” he says. The above is because these fluctuations occur in situations that occur in other countries such as China, Japan, and some European countries. They maintain an expansive policy.
Challegre argues that this makes the United States both the main limiting exception and the center of global attention to risk markets.
Trends defined by scarcity
Considering the long term, Chalegre points out: Bitcoin trends continue to be defined by its scarcity and due to the structural weaknesses of fiat currencies. Recall that the above means that governments “print money as if nothing happened. This causes inflation and deregulation within the global macroeconomy.”
Analysts believe that this scenario would strengthen Bitcoin as a protective asset in “a time of government weakness and high financial uncertainty.”
For now, market views remain divided between signs of bearish exhaustion and lack of a convincing recovery structure. As Battaglia warns, This is the stage where the apparent sense of relief can be deceptive.
The next move will therefore depend on both liquidity flows and the evolution of macroeconomic data, which the market will be waiting for with special attention. Indeed, the game is not over yet.
(Tag translation) Analysis and research
