Bitcoin rebounded from $85,000 over the weekend and remained within the $87,000 to $89.6,000 decision zone.
This move locks the price between nearby liquidity shelves on the attached 30-minute map, with an initial overhead cap centered between $92.8K and $93.4K, and a support ladder down to $84K, $82K to $81.5K, and the $79K shelf.
Derivatives positioning remains cautious, US spot ETF flows have cooled after a large deficit, and macro transparency is limited following the cancellation of October’s CPI release. This combination leaves a relief push to $92,800 while leaving $79,000 in case flows and funds deteriorate.
In the options market, year-end probabilities are likely to be below $90,000, and put interest is concentrated at $85,000, reinforcing the importance of this area.
The flow sets the tone for late November. BlackRock’s IBIT hit a record single-day outflow of $523 million on Nov. 19, a multi-month low tagged spot and the largest since its inception.
The broader ETP complex recorded weekly outflows of about $2 billion in the period around Nov. 17, with Bitcoin products down about $1.38 billion, according to CoinShares. This decline dilutes the passive bidding that has repeatedly absorbed declines throughout the spot ETF era and coincides with the green shelves in the chart below that appear every $1,000 to $2,000.
Options and futures are more defensive than chasing the rally. The $85,000 put expiring in December has a large amount of open interest, a configuration that tends to lock the price around the strike until the hedge is unwound or rolled.
Deribit’s weekly analysis points to a persistent put-heavy skew and an implied volatility term structure tilted upwards toward the downside in the near term, indicating demand for protection rather than calls.
If the price rises while the skew normalizes and funding stabilizes above zero, the path of least resistance will not be a new impulse trend, but mechanical short covering towards the pocket of $92.8,000.
Funding and open interest frame the short-term trap.
Total OI is still elevated relative to spot, and recent sessions have seen funding fluctuate near or below zero, a situation that often results in air pockets and stop runs between known shelves.
The public liquidation heatmap shows a cluster of triggers at the top around $92,000-93,000 and at the bottom around $82,000-79,000. If funding goes negative while the price remains above $85,000, that mix often precedes a nearby indirect liquidity squeeze.
Once funding exceeds $85,000, coupled with further ETF outflows, the stepdown potential increases to $84,000, then $81.5,000, and then $79,000 as liquidation clusters are utilized.
Rather than providing a catalyst, macros reduce visibility. October’s CPI report was canceled due to the U.S. government shutdown, and the release of November’s CPI and employment data was delayed, leaving the Federal Reserve unable to get timely signals ahead of its upcoming meeting.
When the data turns dark, traders place undue weight on high-frequency indicators such as the dollar index, real yields, and financial conditions. According to FRED, the Chicago Fed’s index shows a more severe situation than it did in the fall, and the environment is likely to be dampened by exposure to nearby resistance levels until conditions ease.
The New York Fed has said it expects to expand its reserve management balance sheet in the coming quarters, but this is a medium-term consideration rather than a short-term factor, according to Reuters.
Spot supply and sidelined demand add nuance to the edge. In the latest roundup, the miner fee share has fallen by more than 15% week over week, and forward hash prices remain near $33 per PH per day, according to the hashrate index.
Lower fee income during drawdowns tends to increase the likelihood of distributions to bounces, which corresponds to approximately $92,000 to $93,000 of short interest. On the demand side, the total market value of stablecoins remains at around $300 billion, leaving a dry powder that can quickly change futures prices upon repositioning.
A level map consistent with the chart below places immediate support at $85,700 to $85,000, then $84,000 to $83.5,000, with a secondary band at $82.5,000 to $81.5,000, and a thicker shelf near $79,000.
The overhead intraday gate collects between $87,700 and $89,600, with the first strong cap set between $92,000 and $93,400, with a $92,800 trigger within that zone.
Microstructures dominate in the data vacuum, favoring quick movements between shelves over long-term trends.
Setup takes 2-4 weeks
| path | odds (subjective) | major trigger | target | what to see |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A) Relief between $928,000 and $93,400 | 40% | Funding remains stable at above zero, short covering moves to monthly roll, US ETF net inflows resume in 2-3 days | Taps $92,800 and fades out around $93,400 | Deribit 25Δ skew decreases to negative, IBIT and ARKB turn green, OI bleeds due to price increase |
| B) Range $85,000 – $90,000 | 35% | Data vacuum continues, ETF flows mixed, Fed’s cautious stance | Average return $87,000 – $88,000 | Flat funding, low realized volumes, upward-sloping term structure |
| C) fall from $82.5,000 to $79,000 | twenty five% | Re-outflow of ETFs, severe financial situation, negative funding due to OI construction | Test $84,000, then $81,500 to $79,000 | CoinShares weekly outflows repeat, leading to liquidation clusters below $84,000 |
The intraday risk management checklist is simple. In addition to funds improving above zero, two to three consecutive days of US spot ETF flows in the green tend to open up the glide path towards $92,800.
As funds fall below zero and new outflows occur, prices often return to the $84,000 ladder or the $81,500-$79,000 ledge. Keep an eye on weekly changes in the Chicago Fed’s NFCI and developments in the dollar index, as the push into the overhead band often slows down when conditions are solid and the dollar is strong.
We monitor miners’ fee share and hash price at the time of bounce to predict supply around the $92,000 to $93,000 cap.
There is a frame around the chart and the fork is clean. With puts concentrated around $85,000 and skew still tilted toward protection, $92,800 in relief is viable if funding stabilizes and ETF issuance turns green.
If the ETF continues to experience outflows and its finances tighten again while funding turns negative, the next step on the liquidity ladder will remain at $84,000, then $81,500, and then $79,000.
(Tag Translation) Bitcoin
