Ethereum continues to search for direction as traders monitor declining spot demand, increased derivatives exposure, and new warnings about long-term risks. The asset is trading near multi-month lows, and analysts say structural pressures are now spreading across multiple market tiers. In addition to the technological setbacks that have characterized recent weeks, Ethereum also faces broader concerns about concentration and security.
Technical structure suggests bearish continuation
Ethereum is still locked in a clean downtrend on the 4-hour chart. Price action continues to form lower highs while repeated rejections at Fibonacci levels confirm weak buy conviction. Additionally, the supertrend maintains a solid sell signal, limiting any short-term recovery.
Immediate resistance lies near $3,017, and analysts note that this band has thwarted two attempts to regain momentum. The $3,373 level is above it and is currently acting as a clear supply zone. As a result, traders are keeping a close eye on these levels as both regions capped previous bullish markets.
ETH price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
ETH is trading around $2,852, close to the structural support area that has been retested several times recently. However, this level is above the broader support near $2,945. A break below this point could open up the deeper pockets of liquidity that formed earlier this year. Analysts believe this trend will remain weak unless ETH recovers $3,017 and then $3,373.
Spot flows show persistent outflows
Market trends continue to reflect selling pressure. ETH spot data shows repeated outflows throughout most of the second half of this year. Additionally, several sessions recorded net withdrawals of over $200 million.
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These steady outflows are consistent with the difficulty of containing ETH’s rebound. The latest figures show a net outflow of $223.73 million, with assets trading around $2,743. As a result, traders continue to interpret this trend as a sign of weakening demand.
Open interest rises despite low prices
Derivatives data tells a different story. Open interest rose from less than $15 billion to more than $35 billion in mid-August. This increase suggests expanding speculative activity and deepening liquidity. Moreover, the indicator remained elevated even as prices fell. Many traders view this divergence as evidence of strong participation during a period of declining spot interest.
Long-term risks emerge
Vitalik Buterin expressed concern about two structural threats. He pointed out that institutional investors currently control over 10% of the ETH supply. Additionally, rapid advances in quantum hardware may require early upgrades to core security assumptions. These developments add new complexity to an already stressed market backdrop.
Technical outlook for Ethereum price
As Ethereum moves deeper into a corrective structure, key levels will remain well-defined.
- Top level: $3,017 to $3,050 is the first immediate barrier, then $3,373 and $3,637 are the next major resistance zones. A clean break above these areas could pave the way to $3,851 and $4,000.
- Lower price level: $2,852 acts as the closest support and $2,945 acts as a key line separating the current structure from the deeper downside. Below this, the liquidity zone is centered around $2,700 and $2,550.
- Upper limit of resistance: The 0.236 Fibonacci level at $3,373 remains the key level for a medium-term bullish shift.
ETH continues to compress under a descending structure and immediately faces seller pressure on every rebound. The chart outlines a series of falling highs, severe volatility, and repeated refusals in well-defined retracement zones. This move indicates that the market is preparing for a decisive increase in volatility, either through a recovery in overhead resistance or a complete collapse of support.
Will Ethereum recover?
Ethereum’s near-term direction will depend on whether buyers can hold out the $2,852-$2,945 support band long enough to challenge the $3,017 resistance cluster. Technical compression, weakening spot inflows, and rising derivatives positioning create a setup that can quickly shift momentum in either direction.
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A sustained move above $3,017 and then $3,373 would strengthen the bullish trend and allow ETH to retest $3,637 and possibly $3,851. However, if $2,945 fails to hold, we risk confirming new lows, exposing deeper support zones around $2,700 and $2,550.
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