Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested a much slower timeline for Bitcoin’s next major rally on Thursday, saying the cryptocurrency may not reach $200,000 until around the third quarter of 2029.
According to his post on
A sharp decline after peaking in October?
Bitcoin hit a high of $125,100 on October 5. It has since fallen more than 25%, wiping out about $710 billion in market value.
The token was trading at $83,500 at one point, according to CoinGecko data, before briefly falling to $82,650 as the market moved. Prices have bounced and then fallen again, leaving many traders anxious about timing and risk.
Full disclosure everyone
Of my largest Bitcoin position, I still own 40%, equivalent to 1/20th of Saylor’s average purchase price.
I am a long-term bull on Bitcoin. This dump is the best thing that could happen to Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s next bull market will take us to around $200,000. That…— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 21, 2025
Brandt referenced past commodity patterns to support his argument. He compared Bitcoin’s behavior to the soybean market in the 1970s. At the time, the soybean market peaked sharply when supply outstripped demand, then plummeted. In that episode, soybean prices had fallen about 50% since their peak, Brandt reminded his followers.
Technical signal turns bearish
Meanwhile, market analysis firm CryptoQuant ranked this decline as the weakest phase since the bull market began in January 2023.
The Bull Score Index fell to 20 out of 100 last week. This level indicates weak spot demand, low price momentum, and weak stablecoin liquidity.
The platform also noted that Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average, a technical indicator that has remained through the initial correction of this cycle.
Nonetheless, CryptoQuant CEO Joo Ki-young recently suggested that the market may not have officially entered bear territory, showing how readings and interpretations can differ.
Institutional selling adds to the pressure.
“I’ve never seen this much institutional selling as a percentage of Coinbase volume in history,” said Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, warning that institutional selling was unusually heavy.
According to several analysts, these trends have made the current reset deeper than previous downturns during the same rally.
Bitcoin has never seen this much institutional selling as a percentage of Coinbase volume in its history. pic.twitter.com/YzSzpGQmBN
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) November 21, 2025
A veteran trader’s careful timetable
Brandt’s outlook contrasts with a more optimistic outlook in the cryptocurrency industry. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and market veteran Tom Lee were among those who reiterated their hopes for $200,000 before the end of the year, according to the report.
Fullback considered healthy by some
Despite Bitcoin’s current sluggish state, Brandt described the recent dump as beneficial. He argued that a purge could now remove the excess and take stronger action later.
Other celebrities have set even faster goals. Some predicted $200,000 by the end of the year, while others, including ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, predicted $1 million by 2030.
Other analysts pointed to the historical pattern of painful corrections followed by new gains, but added that timing such a transition is difficult.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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