A new Bitcoin “top signal” has arrived – a bear market indicator you don’t want to see.

Are crypto IPOs the most accurate top signal, or do they just tell investors to keep retesting because they feel true in the heat late in the cycle?

The tape provides a clean cluster to examine. Coinbase’s direct listing arrived on April 14, 2021, the exact day Bitcoin set a then-record of nearly $64,000.

Stronghold Digital Mining priced its IPO on October 19-20, 2021, about three weeks before Bitcoin peaked at around $68,789 on November 10.

This cycle, the bullish August 13, 2025 debut and figure September 10, 2025 price landed within eight and four weeks of Bitcoin’s October 6 high near $126,198.

Grayscale’s Nov. 13, 2025 initial public offering IPO filing has been at the top for just over a month, joined by late entries in the same slot.

There is a familiar rhythm to play. During strong advances in cryptocurrencies, exchanges, brokers, miners, and asset managers tend to find their way into the public markets, often at a time when trading volumes, fees, and media attention are at their peak.

Crypto bull market IPO

Coinbase in 2021 became an abbreviation for Top Timing as the calendar was lined up for that day. Stronghold positions approached their final cycle high in November of the same year after a market pause from May to July.

In 2025, bulls and figures lined up in August and September, and Bitcoin completed the move in early October. This sequence does not prove a rule or provide a clock. With fixed deadlines, filings that reveal business mix, and transactions that include book-quality details, portfolio managers have a clear anchor for late-cycle monitoring.

Clusters help you frame your risk appetite in real time. Mr. Bull’s August debut saw heavy first day trading, with valuations near the top of the range.

The company said that while the figure is priced at $25, Bitcoin’s October issuance marked the highest price of the cycle across the majors.

The conversation then shifted from listing to filing, with Grayscale showing revenue of $318.7 million and net income of $203.3 million in the first nine months of 2025, and acknowledging fee pressure in public documents.

Gemini’s S-1 was released in mid-August ahead of the October high, further accelerating the late-cycle congestion in FX-centric activity.

Calculating bull market IPO signals

An easy way to track patterns is to count the number of days from each listing to the top of the cycle. The 2021 and 2025 periods fall within what appears to be a tradable range of approximately T minus 60 days to T plus 30 days. Here, T is the all-time high.

Coinbase has reached T0, Stronghold is around T-22, Bullish is around T-54, Figure is around T-26, and Grayscale filing is around T-38. This cycle appears to be more of a timing preference of the funding market than a coincidence, with teams favoring valuation uptape windows while investors are aware that liquidity without an unlimited growth path can match the overall distribution of the secondary market.

Below is a concise table of anchor dates to adjust that window.

Readings late in the cycle do not rule out new highs. The Spot Bitcoin ETF approved in 2024 has built new structural demand that could smooth out the usual post-listing decline.

Plumbing is important for flow-through to exchanges, miners, and asset managers. Still, the role of open markets as a clearing mechanism is being reaffirmed.

As Grayscale’s filing outlines, as fees are compressed and top-line revenues shift from peak print, valuation discipline becomes evident in the speed of order book and pipeline pricing.

Tape balance adjustment

Who is on the list is also important. Listing on an exchange is the cleanest timing marker and fits business models that benefit when sales peak.

The minors have had mixed results, with many coming after the top in 2021-2022. There are also counterexamples.

Canaan’s November 2019 IPO near the bottom of the bear market was a reminder that macros, product cycles, and company specifics can overwhelm seasonal timing.

The next few checkpoints are easy. Watch for Gemini’s roadshow pace and pricing to converge or fluctuate.

Track how Grayscale’s valuation clears relative to a combination of fee pressure and retail and institutional demand.

Stay tuned for Kraken’s 2026 posture for a real-time read on whether the window will reopen after the integration.

If this paper needed one sentence, it would be this: Cryptocurrency IPOs do not require top officials to convene by law. The concentration near the end of the boom is when the market pays out the most for flow-through earnings, and this cycle follows the same script.