The U.S.-traded Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows of $2.57 billion through Nov. 17, the fund’s worst monthly drawdown since its inception in January 2024.
Bitcoin fell 14.7% that month, briefly hitting $89,253.78 on November 17, its lowest since April, before rebounding 1.3% in the next 24 hours to $93,426.16.
The wave of outflows culminated on Nov. 13, with $866.7 million leaving the fund in the second-worst single-day retreat in history, according to data from Pharside Investors. BlackRock’s IBIT felt the brunt of it the next day, posting a record daily loss of $463.1 million.
IBIT alone accounts for approximately $1.6 billion of total monthly redemptions.
transmission mechanism
ETF flows are directly converted into spot demand through an authorized participant creation and redemption process. When an ETF is capitalized, the AP must purchase or procure the underlying Bitcoin for delivery to the fund’s custodian, generating an actual spot purchase.
When demand is created that exceeds natural selling pressure, circulating supply tightens and liquidation prices rise. The reverse is also true. Redemptions force funds to sell Bitcoin or unwind hedges, putting pressure on the spot market decline.
This mechanism operates through a channel that bypasses retail cryptocurrency exchanges. Retirement accounts, registered investment advisors, and wirehouse platforms attract institutional capital that otherwise would not have access to on-chain markets.
When these allocators change tack, they remove the structural bids that were absorbing minor issuance and other circulating supply.
Daily mining production after the halving will be approximately 450 BTC, and continued net purchases above that rate will result in negative net new supply, a condition that typically supports price increases.
Additionally, timing is important. AP executes Bitcoin purchases with a focus on stock creation during US market hours, but public flow data is published after trading closes.
Some participants hedge with CME futures before procuring physical assets, fragmenting intraday price discovery between derivatives and physical markets. Price movements can lead the headline flow numbers by hours.
Broader context and price trends
Flows don’t work alone. Bitcoin could rise on the day of the outflow if offshore leverage increases or another group of buyers emerges.
Conversely, if macro risks, dollar strength, or liquidations prevail, inflows do not guarantee profits.
However, continued redemptions over several weeks indicate erosion of durable demand, lowering the price floor needed to attract sellers.
Bitcoin’s monthly drawdown was 18.6% to $89,253.78, tracking the scale of ETF capital flight. The fund served as a steady source of fiat-specific demand, absorbing spot supply and reducing the float available for sale.
November’s reversal removed the very support structure as miners continued to produce 450 BTC each day and the market digested the previous inflows that had pushed Bitcoin above $111,000 at the beginning of the month.
The $2.57 billion exit will be the first sustained test of whether ETF demand can stabilize amidst volatility, or whether these vehicles will amplify drawdowns as allocators change hands.
IBIT’s $1.6 billion in redemptions alone exceeds the total monthly outflows recorded in any period in history, with outflows concentrated in the largest and most liquid funds.
While Bitcoin’s rally above $93,000 suggests there is some buying interest at lower levels, this month’s cumulative damage reflects a retreat in the structural demand that supported Bitcoin’s rally through 2024 and early 2025.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
