The US government debt exceeded $38 trillion in early November, representing Bitcoin stocks, which revealed larger movements than the underlying BTC price since January 20th.
Total public debt stood at $38.118 trillion as of Nov. 6, according to the U.S. Treasury’s Penny Debt Data Set, an increase of about $1.1 trillion since Aug. 12 and more than the $38 trillion mark in late October, which drew new headlines.
The $37 trillion threshold first made news in mid-August, and the next trillion arrived within weeks as issuance continued.
During the same period, spot BTC this month has generally traded within a range of $100,000 to $105,000, with a closing price of $102,082 on January 20th.
Therefore, from the point of view of the unit of account, it became clear that the movement of the liability was greater than the price at the beginning of the week. The base price on Inauguration Day was $102,082, and today’s level is within 10% of that price.
TimechainIndex’s Sani calculated that at an operating price of $103,500 per BTC, the current US public debt is equivalent to approximately 368.3 million BTC, or $38.118 trillion divided by the BTC price.
On January 20th, @realDonaldTrump At the time of his inauguration, the price of Bitcoin was $103,500, the same as it trades today.
During this period, the US national debt increased by $1.9 trillion, reaching $38.126 trillion.
In Bitcoin terms, the debt increased by 18,566,000 BTC, totaling… pic.twitter.com/du0NucMFa4
— Sani | TimechainIndex.com (@SaniExp) November 13, 2025
Debt outstanding has increased by approximately $1.9 trillion since January 20th, and if we value the change at $103,500 per BTC, this yields approximately 18.36 million BTC.
Bitcoin is down more than 6% since Sani posted his insight, so this works out to 19.8 million BTC at $96,000.
Post-halving production is close to 450 BTC per day, or approximately 164,250 BTC per year, so this 10-month increase is equivalent to more than a century of new supply.
Inflows and outflows to the US Spot Bitcoin ETF add an incremental pressure valve.
US spot ETF flow tallies have been mixed through early November, but this is important for the mechanical link between demand, price, and ‘Debt in BTC’ ratio.
On the fiscal front, the Treasury continues to raise net new cash through quarterly repayments. In November, the Treasury Department announced a $125 billion issuance to pay for $98.2 billion in refunds that were due, raising $26.8 billion in new cash. Ongoing SOMA outflows and tight maturity schedules maintain steady funding demand, according to the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly repayment report and TBAC minutes.
A simple calculation highlights how fixed supply assets interact with increasing debt. Even if BTC traded at $200,000, using the current level of $38,118 billion, the outstanding debt would still be equivalent to about 191 million BTC.
This is an order of magnitude higher than the approximately 19 million to 20 million coins in circulation today. While on-chain supply will increase gradually as expected, the debt numerator could increase by hundreds of billions of dollars within weeks, depending on issuance and cash balances.
The sensitivity to BTC price is easy to explain. The table below shows how the “Debt in BTC” figure compresses as the price increases. We keep the latest debt total constant and round it to one decimal place for ease of reading.
| BTCUSD | US Debt (BTC) |
|---|---|
| $80,000 | ~476.5 million BTC |
| $100,000 | ~381.2 million BTC |
| $103,500 | ~368.3 million BTC |
| $120,000 | ~317.7 million BTC |
| $150,000 | ~254.1 million BTC |
| $200,000 | ~190.6 million BTC |
A practical rule of thumb close to current levels is that for every $10,000 move in BTC, the “debt in BTC” figure changes by approximately 32 million to 36 million BTC. This is a 9-10% change across the curve and is non-linear.
This framework is not an assertion that the United States can or will repay its debts with Bitcoin. Rather, it is a unit of account lens that compares fixed issued assets with fiscal paths driven by policy and macroeconomic conditions.
The lens is also sensitive to date adjustments. Treasury’s daily debt data is posted with a lag, so matching the debt end and BTCUSD end to the same calendar date is important for accuracy. Since different price sources can vary by 1-2%, specifying the source with each calculation helps keep the calculations auditable.
From now on, the path of the numerator and denominator will determine whether the chart curves downwards or not. In terms of the numerator, the Treasury’s term structure choice and net new cash demand will determine the extent of the rollover and the interest cost path through 2026.
According to the repayment report, approximately 31% of marketable debt matured within 12 months in the most recent quarter, with an average maturity of nearly six years. This combination focuses on bill share and coupon sizing if yields remain near the current range.
Regarding the denominator, the ETF’s flow regime can change rapidly, and continued positive flows will support spot demand and mechanically reduce the “debt in BTC” ratio. Weekly fluctuations are still common as funds and advisors rebalance.
The macro overlay from the budget forecast leans toward higher interest costs at baseline. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s 2025-2035 outlook, net interest rates are projected to rise to about 4% of GDP by 2035, and without policy changes, public debt is projected to reach about 156% of GDP by 2055.
According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s CBO baseline summary, with near-term real growth below 2% and inflation trending toward 2%, the nominal GDP denominator is not pushed up significantly, supporting the arithmetic that the “debt in BTC” figure will be more than stable unless prices rise or the fiscal deficit is compressed.
It’s easy to reproduce the calculation. Get the latest public debt balances from Treasury Debt on the Penny portal, get the same day’s BTCUSD closing price from a consistent index, and calculate “Debt in BTC” as DebtUSD divided by BTCUSD.
For the issuing context, use 450 BTC per day after halving. This method yields a figure of 368.3 million BTC at a price of $103,500 on a debt basis of $38.118 trillion, while mapping at the same price yields a year-to-date increase of approximately 18.36 million BTC.
What to watch next quarter will be developments in Treasury bids, changes to net new capital targets, trends in ETF flows, and CBO updates as tax discussions resume in FY26.
Movement of any of these inputs will appear in either the numerator or the denominator.
The refunds raised $26.8 billion in new cash and paid off $98.2 billion in refunds that were due, according to a November statement from the Treasury Department.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
