With the price of Bitcoin sitting at $115,458 on October 27, Polymarket’s prediction traders are making two big bets – one on how the month will end and the other on where Bitcoin will be by the end of 2025 – and the odds couldn’t be more different.
Polymarket traders bet on Bitcoin’s October closing price
Polymarket’s “What Price Will Bitcoin Reach in October?” Total market volume reaches $35 million and bets are scheduled to settle at 12am on November 1 Despite Bitcoin showing an uptrend towards the end of this month, traders are betting that Bitcoin will remain near its current range.
The odds of winning the top prize of $200,000 are less than 1%, and a “yes” stock costs 0.3 cents and has a volume of more than $13.2 million. Similar longshot Bitcoin bets ($150,000 and $135,000) also trade between 0.3 cents and 1.3 cents, with odds ranging from 1% to less than 1%.
The most “realistic” targets, $130,000 and $100,000, each have odds of 3%, while bearish brackets such as $95,000 and $90,000 remain close to 1%, suggesting that traders see Bitcoin ending October between $100,000 and $130,000 with little chance of an extreme move either way.
Is the result less than $80,000 or less than $70,000? Unexpected in nature — all odds are less than 1% and the total volume per bracket is less than $1 million.
Predictions for 2025 paint an even bleaker picture
Long-term movements can be found in Polymarket’s “What price will Bitcoin reach in 2025?” Markets — where optimism starts to heat up. Here, traders are eyeing the $130,000 to $150,000 zone as a sweet spot, setting the price at odds of 31% and 53%, respectively.
Beyond that, trust quickly wanes. 6% on $170,000, 3% on $200,000, and 2% on $250,000. A brave few still want $1 million in Bitcoin, but there’s only a 1% chance the market will win over that illusion. “Yes” shares cost just 0.7 cents.
On the bearish side, Polymarket traders do not foresee a catastrophe, but do acknowledge some risk. There is an 18% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $90,000 in 2025, followed by a 10% chance of $80,000 and a 6% chance of $70,000. A plunge to $50,000 or $20,000 is seen as nearly impossible, at just 3% and 1%, respectively.
Crowd Mood: Bullish but not hopium-drunk.
Overall, predictive traders appear to be cautiously bullish. This shows the belief that Bitcoin’s next big move will not happen on Halloween this year, but in 2025. While short-term odds aren’t showing much excitement, long-term sentiment leans toward steady growth, with the median forecast for next year looking in six-digit territory.
Frequently asked questions 🧠
- What does Polymarket predict for Bitcoin’s price in October?Polymarket traders expect Bitcoin to finish between $100,000 and $130,000, with most high and low price targets at odds of less than 3%.
- What does the Polymarket market suggest in 2025?Traders favor a Bitcoin price of around $130,000 to $150,000 next year, with that range accounting for most of the volume and odds.
- How much money are there in these Bitcoin prediction markets?Total October market volume is approximately $35 million, but the 2025 market is equally active across multiple price points.
- Are traders bullish or bearish on Bitcoin over the long term?Overall sentiment is somewhat bullish, with traders not expecting a moonshot anytime soon, but betting on price gains through the end of 2025.
