Mt Gox has just received court approval to extend the repayment deadline again from this Friday to October 31, 2026.
The one-year extension effectively diffuses short-term selling pressure, turning what could have been a surge in supply into another protracted management cycle. As with previous phases, repayments will be made in waves through exchanges, custodians and OTC venues rather than in a flood, and the immediate market impact is expected to be contained.
For Bitcoin, this delay not only magnifies the overhang narrative but also highlights that the Mt.Gox distribution remains a slow bleed and not a single catalyst capable of shaking up the broader market structure.
The deadline had already been postponed since October last year, and now it has happened again.
Why is Mt Gox payment being delayed for another year?
According to an official notice, the administrator cited incomplete creditor procedures and processing issues as the reason for changing the completion date for basic repayments, early lump sum repayments and interim repayments from October 31, 2025 to October 31, 2026, and shifting the expected supply overhang by a full year. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $114,874.
Date changes convert calendar overhangs into process overhangs. A significant proportion of creditors still need to complete exchange and custody procedures, and previous tranches have shown payments being made on extended schedules through exchange queues, custody releases, and bank rails.
The historical processing period was up to about 90 days for Kraken, about 60 days for Bitstamp, and about 20 days for BitGo. So even if the trustee releases funds, the conversions and potential sales may be spread out over several months rather than a single session.
Public trackers continue to place the residual wealth around 34,700 BTC, but the on-chain total fluctuates based on internal movements.
The scale context is different from previous cycles. The Bitcoin ETF has recorded cumulative inflows of $61.98 billion since its launch, with net inflows of $4.2 billion in October alone.
At approximately $115,000 per coin, your monthly Bitcoin intake is equivalent to approximately 36,000 BTC, which is comparable to the entire rest of the Mt.Gox stack. Although this is not a fundamental absorption path, it does indicate the magnitude of the regulatory demand for overhangs.
The depth of listed derivatives also expanded through the fall.
Cryptocurrency futures and options hit record highs in the third quarter, with notional open interest at a record $39 billion on September 18 and average dollar open interest for the quarter at $31.3 billion, according to CME Group data.
More inventory hedging, basis trading, and options activity means more ability to mediate temporary spot flows through delta hedging and cross-venue arbitrage. This plumbing gives dealers and arbitration desks more space to warehouse Mt.Gox-related supplies without forcing unregulated prints on the spot market.
Spot ETFs remain a core part of the absorption picture. BlackRock’s IBIT fund has assets of $89 billion, and individual products now rival many times the entire remaining stock of Mt.Gox. Persistent creation during dips, plus the ability to route coins through authorized participants and market makers creates a structural buyer base that did not exist in 2021.
If ETF creation reaches a fraction of the pace seen in early October, the market impact of gradual creditor sales could translate into liquidity events mediated by ETFs, futures, and cash.
Publication sets a further baseline.
After the April 2024 halving, miners will add approximately 450 BTC per day, or approximately 164,250 BTC per year. Its annual flow is more than four times that of the rest of Mt. Gox’s stack. Issuance itself does not determine price, but it does provide a measure of the amount of new supply that the market has already absorbed under normal circumstances.
The associated risk calendar has now been extended to 2026. Regarding the timing of tax payments, discretionary sales may be concentrated especially around the end of the year and around the filing deadline.
US taxpayers end the calendar year on December 31st, and the estimated tax payment pace is mid-January, while the UK’s online self-assessment deadline is January 31st, and the Japanese filing and payment deadline is March 15th. These dates may prompt the harvesting or sale of lots to cover debts.
Quarterly and year-end rebalancing add another layer, with ETF books, dealer hedging, and CME maturity cycles compressing basis and amplifying bidirectional flows between monthly and quarterly turns.
Macro remains a swing factor. The Bank of Japan’s board of directors became even more hawkish in late September, suspending interest rate changes and the possibility of direct exchange rate intervention.
BIS has documented how the August 2024 yen carry-unwind facilitated cross-asset deleveraging, and that shock included cryptocurrencies. If there is a similar funding crunch in 2026, the balance sheet of risk assets as a whole will be forced to be reduced, which will cast a shadow over the movement of the trustee’s wallet, but this will have a bigger negative tail for Bitcoin than the Mt. Gox distribution channel.
A simple scenario frame helps map the scale to a reasonable outcome using 34,689 BTC as the starting overhang and $115,174 as the spot anchor.
| Scenario (until 2026) | % of 34,689 BTC sold | Bitcoin sold | Dollar value @ $115,174 |
|---|---|---|---|
| small drip | twenty five% | 8,672 | ~$1 billion |
| basic case | 50% | 17,345 | ~$2 billion |
| high case | 80% | 27,751 | ~$3.2 billion |
The gist is a sizing tool that compares overhang to one week of solid ETF intake and one year of issuance after the halving.
Market structure provides more avenues to mediate flows when realized sales are staggered and routed through exchanges, OTC desks, and custodial withdrawals across already observed processing windows.
If sales are concentrated around tax dates, quarterly closings, or macro shocks, the impact on prices can increase due to basis compression and reduced liquidity.
Creditors also receive Bitcoin Cash, but the order book for BCH is thinner than for BTC.
Although the notional dollar amount in question is much smaller, the relative price sensitivity may be higher in BCH during the payment period, according to the trustee’s repayment notice.
Monitoring will focus on the trustee’s official page, the Mt.Gox entity’s chain label to distinguish between exchange-bound transfers and internal shuffles, the creation and redemption of US spot ETFs, the CME basis and open interest, and the Bank of Japan’s policy releases on yen intervention and interest rate steps.
Changing the calendar does not remove supply risk, it changes its pace.
Current reference points are the tax and rebalancing windows in the first half and second half of 2026, the CME maturity cluster, and the Bank of Japan’s moves to squeeze yen carry.
The receiver’s new deadline sets the next checkpoint for October 31, 2026.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
