The world money supply (global M2) is at unprecedented levels. Currently hovering around $137 trillion and increasing almost linearly over the past two years, this indicator could act as a magnet to lift Bitcoin (BTC) to new heights if history repeats itself.
According to Jesse Myers, head of Bitcoin strategy at The Smarter Web Company, global money printing presses have “not been as active since COVID-19.” Recall that during the years of the pandemic, the global money supply accelerated significantly. By the end of 2020, it will grow by 21%.
For analysts, this pace of expansion has a direct impact on scarce assets. He emphasized that while gold has responded to the rally, hitting new highs this year, Bitcoin “seems to be a laggard, just like what happened in 2020.” This shows that the price of BTC increased six times between the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. To be precise, it was caused by the financial expansion of the time.
By definition, global M2 is: An index that measures the total amount of money in the worldincluding cash and bank deposits. This reflects global liquidity and helps assess how monetary policy affects the economy and financial markets.
The correlation between global M2 expansion and Bitcoin movements has strengthened over time. In fact, the global money supply has never been as high as it was in 2025. And historically, each stage of great financial expansion occurred simultaneously, with some lag. With the sustained rise in Bitcoin prices,this strengthens the theory that digital assets react to fiat currency depreciation.
Looking at the graph below, you can see that the price of BTC is, in fact, closely tracking global monetary liquidity, maintaining the rise that has led the digital asset to new all-time highs.
Doris Yau: “Liquidity will go to gold first, then to Bitcoin”
To explore this topic, CriptoNoticias interviewed Panamanian financial analyst Doris Yau. Financial expansion “acts as a direct catalyst, but in stages.”
According to his analysis, “gold absorbs liquidity first, and as it consolidates or recedes, that liquidity shifts to Bitcoin.” For Yau, this pattern repeats itself consistently. “Bitcoin follows the movement of gold, but with a lag of several weeks.” Rotating capital between assets takes time, so the market doesn’t discount everything right away.
His argument focuses on Bitcoin’s verifiable scarcity as a structural advantage over other safe assets. “The fundamental difference is certainty,” he points out. “There are 21 million Bitcoins, right? With gold, we don’t know how much will be mined tomorrow, but with bonds, it depends on changes in political decisions,” he suggests.
“Gold maintains an advantage due to its low volatility and institutional legitimacy. But in the medium to long term, Bitcoin’s scarcity, which anyone can verify in real time, is superior. “It’s the apparent scarcity and the assumed scarcity,” he argues.
Yau also highlighted that institutional investors are increasing their exposure to Bitcoin more slowly than in previous cycles. “Institutional investors will increase their exposure to Bitcoin, but at a slower pace than in 2020.”
Things have changed. There are now exchange-traded funds (ETFs), regulated custodians, and publicly traded companies that carry Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Institutional investors no longer invest 1%. They’re looking at 3% to 5%, but that takes more time and effort.
Doris Yau, financial analyst.
Regarding Bitcoin’s historical cycle, analysts believe that Bitcoin is not dying out, but rather evolving. Therefore, he believes it is too early to declare that the traditional cycle is over.
“Bitcoin’s halving continues to reduce supply as demand increases, creating inevitable upward pressure. “What is changing is the amplitude of the oscillations,” he commented, stressing that “we will evolve towards longer cycles of five to six years, with lower volatility, but with greater correlation to the macro environment.”
“Bitcoin is becoming less of a niche and more of a macro asset,” the expert said, concluding that the key now is to understand that global monetary policy works in waves, impacting the most liquid traditional assets first and only then moving to the most innovative assets. “Liquidity doesn’t come all at once. It comes in waves, and Bitcoin is always last,” he says.
Jack Gerson: “Money that flows into the economy is not discounted.”
CriptoNoticias also spoke with Venezuelan investor Jack Gerson, who agreed: Global financial expansion could trigger a new revaluation cycle for Bitcoinalthough there are nuances.
“The global liquidity problem affects two sides: one is the speculative side, which can be discounted, and the other is the practical side, the money that actually circulates in the economy. That money is not discounted,” he points out.
For Garson, once this trend starts to turn, “it will take a few months before we start moving towards other investment vehicles.” “Certainly some of that liquidity will rotate into Bitcoin,” he says.
According to Garson, not all of that fluidity reaches Satoshi Nakamoto’s inventions. “But to get a more interesting price for Bitcoin, it is enough to have a percentage in it,” he emphasizes.
The programmed scarcity narrative also becomes important compared to traditional assets. As seen by experts, the prerequisites are: Limited assets tend to increase in value by taking advantage of inflation.and unrestricted assets tend to depreciate in value and lose purchasing power. “With this idea, Bitcoin can tap into some of the flows coming from gold,” he points out, agreeing with the Panamanian analyst’s vision.
Garzón, on the other hand, interprets the current movement in gold as “not just about making money, but about escaping something that the market interprets.”
In his opinion, U.S. Treasuries no longer serve their historic role as a haven. “Certainly, government bonds are no longer reliable because they offer annual yields that are below the rate of inflation, and investors expect that to continue to be the case,” he emphasizes.
Given this loss of appeal, he believes there is likely to be a “rotation to limited assets such as Bitcoin and stocks in the world’s most important companies.”
When asked about the reaction from institutional investors, Garson speculates: Adjustments are still needed to attract large-scale capital. “It is a clear trend that large private and public companies are adding Bitcoin to their treasury, but they are not going to buy at the current price. I think Bitcoin needs to fall so that large institutional investors and government funds can come in,” he commented.
He is also cautious about the end of traditional cycles. For him, “it’s likely that Bitcoin will abandon the four-year cycle, but it would be a mistake to bet everything on a single scenario.”
Nevertheless, it is worth remembering the magnitude of recent progress. “Bitcoin will rise from $15,000 in 2022-2023 to more than $125,000 this year.” “This is a significant revaluation, so the balance of risk and reward is not very attractive at this time.” So he suggests “considering a partial profit-taking strategy.”
Macro situation: end of cycle or maturity of asset
Yau and Garson’s opinion contrasts with that of analysts such as Arthur Hayes, Willy Wu, aka Crypto Kakarot, who argue that the Bitcoin market is It no longer follows a four-year pattern determined by half-life.
Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said that “the traditional Bitcoin cycle is over” as monetary policymakers in the US and China are “determined to deliver a massive liquidity injection in the coming months.” According to him, this will benefit Bitcoin and prevent historical patterns from repeating.
Analyst and professional trader Willy Wu believes that of the two cycles that have historically moved prices, the halving cycle and the global liquidity cycle, only the latter remains the “dominant force.”
Remember, this asset has not yet faced a deep recession, and a future severe economic contraction “will be the ultimate test for Bitcoin.”
Crypto Kakarot, on the other hand, claims that the FED has “kept interest rates extremely high for longer than necessary,” which has fueled geopolitical tensions between the US and China and “broken Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.”
Amid a flurry of estimates and opinions, the market is holding Bitcoin above $110,000 after weeks of volatility in an environment where investors assess whether Bitcoin will repeat the post-COVID-19 dynamics of 2020 or whether increased global liquidity will create a new, more stable, long-term paradigm.
The global M2 money supply graph shows that printing money has not stopped. Each increase in available liquidity reduces the relative value of fiat currencies Assets with limited supply become more attractive. Bitcoin embodies the digital scarcity narrative with its planned and predictable issuance.
Therefore, it is worth remembering the following famous saying: History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. In other words, if global M2 remains bullish, An increase in the price of digital assets will be imminent.
