Bitcoin BTC$107,542.19 Investors, now is the time to buckle down.
John Glover, an Elliott Wave analyst and chief investment officer at Reddon, known for his accurate market predictions, has a stark warning against the bullish consensus: The Bitcoin bull market that began in early 2023 appears to be over following the recent decline from $126,000 to $104,000.
Glover now predicts a sustained bear market could occur, with prices falling below $70,000, which could be a drop of more than 35% from the current market rate of about $108,000.
“We believe we have completed a five-wave bull market and are entering a bear market that could last until at least the second half of 2026,” Glover said. “We expect Bitcoin to trade between $70,000 and $80,000, or even lower.”
Glover explained that while he cannot rule out the possibility of Bitcoin retesting its all-time high near $124,000 or rising slightly, the overall trend has now turned bearish, meaning the price is likely to fall in the coming months.
Elliott wave theory
Elliott Wave Theory, introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, is based on the idea that collective investor psychology moves in predictable cycles. These cycles form a five-wave structure, including three impulse waves and two correction waves in the direction of the main trend.
Bitcoin’s bullish five-wave pattern began in late 2022 when the price fell below $20,000, and the fifth wave culminated earlier this month with a record high above $126,000.
Initially, it was expected that the fifth wave would push prices between $140,000 and $150,000 by the end of the year. Glover made the call in early August on the back of growing bearish concerns after the stock’s price plummeted from $120,000 to $112,000.
Prices soared as expected but stalled this month above $125,000, and Grover warned that the bulls will lose momentum if they fail to maintain that level repeatedly. Bitcoin then fell to $105,000 last week, confirming an early end to the bull market.
“Now that we’ve broken below $108,000, we’re ready to decide whether we’re on the orange path on the chart below, and therefore looking to move up to $145,000, or whether we’re on the yellow path, meaning we’ve seen the high of this market,” Glover said. “This is my call: The Bitcoin rally is over!”
Bitcoin’s bullish five-wave structure has ended. (John Glover, TradingView)
This bearish outlook is consistent with Bitcoin’s historical trend of peaking approximately 18 months after each halving event and then entering a bear market. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024.
Supporting Glover’s bearish sentiment, AmberData data shows that BTC Deribit exchange-traded put options, which provide downside protection, are trading at a premium compared to calls expiring in September 2026. This suggests that some traders are bracing for downside risk that continues into next year.
