Ethereum is showing renewed resilience after a sharp pullback from recent highs of $4,758, and price movements suggest increased market confidence. On the 4-hour chart, ETH is trading near $4,164 and is trying to retake the short-term moving average. This recovery coincides with a rise in futures trading and an improvement in currency flows, both of which signal a potential rebound forming after weeks of consolidation.
Buyers protect $3,940 support zone
Importantly, Ethereum maintains strong defense above the $3,940-$3,950 zone, which coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. This level has served as an important benchmark since early October, preventing further downside moves.
Above this level, short-term stability is strengthened and the argument for new accumulation is supported. Current immediate resistance lies between $4,250 and $4,270, where the 200-EMA and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement converge. A clean breakout above this area could expose higher targets near $4,476 and ultimately $4,758.
ETH price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
Additionally, the 20-day EMA is approaching a bullish crossover above the 50-day EMA, showing early signs of recovery momentum. Still, a sustained close above the 200-EMA is needed to confirm the broader trend.
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Until then, traders remain cautious as $4,098 and $3,943 serve as important downside support. Failure to defend these levels could push ETH back toward $3,750 or $3,439, where a deeper bid could reappear.
Derivatives data reflects confidence in financial institutions
In addition to spot movements, derivatives indicators also show that confidence is rising. Ethereum’s open interest in the futures market reached $46.81 billion on October 15, one of the highest levels this year.
The steady increase from less than $20 billion at the beginning of 2025 indicates increased participation from speculative and institutional investors. This increased interest reflects stabilization in ETH prices and indicates that traders are rebuilding long positions after an extensive accumulation phase over the summer.
As a result, the surge in leverage exposure suggests investors are expecting increased volatility heading into the second half of the fourth quarter. Continuing open interest in tandem with stable funding rates signals optimism rather than excessive risk-taking, providing a supportive backdrop for continued recovery.
Foreign exchange flows show a rebound in accumulation
Additionally, Ethereum spot net flow data shows notable changes in trading activity. After weeks of heavy withdrawals, October 15th saw net inflows of $13.36 million, suggesting renewed interest building around $4,160. The reversal reflects renewed demand from traders looking to continue the rally, following more than $600 million in outflows in early October.
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Ethereum (ETH/USD) Technical Outlook: Key Levels Will Determine Recovery Path into Q4
Ethereum’s technical setup remains constructive after a sharp correction from the $4,758 peak, with the price holding firm above the important $3,940 to $3,950 support area. This zone coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and served as a strong defensive foundation throughout October.
- Top level: Immediate resistance lies between $4,250 and $4,270, coinciding with the 0.618 Fib and 200-EMA, key thresholds for regaining bullish momentum. If the price sustains a close above this range, ETH could rise towards $4,476 (0.786 Fib) and retest the $4,758 high.
- Lower price level: Initial support is near $4,098, while deeper support remains at $3,943. A breakdown below $3,940 could lead to further selling towards $3,750 (0.236 fib) and $3,439, where the previous consolidation zone could provide relief.
- Upper limit of resistance: The $4,270 area remains an important ceiling for a medium-term trend reversal. A decisive move beyond this will likely test the recovery structure towards the second half of the fourth quarter.
The broader structure suggests that Ethereum is swirling between converging moving averages, reflecting compression ahead of the potential for increased volatility. The 20 EMA above the 50 EMA indicates that near-term momentum is improving, but confirmation depends on a sustained reversal above the 200 EMA.
Will Ethereum continue its recovery?
Ethereum’s trajectory depends on whether buyers can maintain the $3,940 benchmark while absorbing new inflows. Spot data recently showed positive net inflows of $13.36 million, marking fresh accumulation after heavy outflows earlier this month. Combined with open interest reaching $46.8 billion, the highest since early 2025, the market reflects the strength of conviction among both retail and institutional participants.
If the bullish momentum continues, ETH could test the resistance cluster between $4,476 and $4,758. However, if it cannot sustain above $3,940, there is a risk that the correction will widen below $3,750. The fourth quarter remains pivotal as technical compression, macro sentiment, and derivatives positioning all converge, setting the stage for Ethereum’s next big directional move.
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