Nobel Peace Prize organizers investigate possible insider trading in polymarkets

Organizers of the Nobel Peace Prize are investigating whether insiders used privileged information about this year’s winners to profit from the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket, according to local reports.

This morning, about 11 hours before the high-profile award was presented to Venezuelan resistance leader María Colina Machado, Polimarket’s odds of winning soared from near zero to more than 70 percent.

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize Winners Market has amassed more than $21.4 million in trading volume since its launch in July. For much of that time, Machado’s odds of winning the coveted award have hovered around 1% or 2%.

And on Thursday night, shortly before 1 a.m. Norwegian time, the Venezuelan’s odds of victory jumped to more than 43%. By 2 a.m., it had reached 73%.

The identities of winners of the Nobel Peace Prize, one of the world’s most coveted awards, are usually kept a closely guarded secret. Machado himself did not know he had won the award until minutes before the news was announced publicly in Oslo at 11 a.m. this morning.

The five members are committee According to local reports, the team tasked with selecting the award’s winner had not even made a decision until this week.

But somehow Polymarket traders seemed well aware of their decision ahead of today’s splashy announcement.

The action appears to have begun this morning at approximately 12:45 a.m. Norwegian time. trader The site began betting thousands of dollars on Machado’s chances of winning. Over the next few hours, they continued to buy and sell Machado’s positions worth thousands of dollars, eventually redeeming $80,000 when the market resolved.

According to the Polymarket site, their accounts were created within the past 10 days.

A Nobel Institute spokeswoman did not immediately respond. decryptionis seeking comment on what happens if someone within or connected to an awards committee is found to have used insider information about an award to make a profit.

But while such activity may be looked down upon within secret organizations, it is widely considered a good thing in the world of prediction markets. Although the end goal of prediction markets tends to be accurate information, not fairAnd Polymarket users were finally able to find out this morning’s breaking news the night before.

Polymarket’s terms of serviceOn the other hand, there appears to be no restriction on users using insider or privileged information when placing bets. A company representative did not immediately respond. decryptionRequest comments on this story.