Bitcoin’s BTC$121,309.08 The implied volatility (IV) gauge rose to a 2.5-month high, consistent with seasonal trends.
According to data source TradingView, the Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV, which is the annualized four-week expected price change) was over 42%, the highest level since late August.
IV measures the market’s expectations of future price changes based on option pricing. A high IV suggests that traders are expecting larger price movements in the future.
BVIV rose earlier this month along with the rise in BTC prices, and continues to rise despite recently falling from its all-time high of over $126,000 to around $120,000.
bullish seasonality
According to BVIV’s historical data, the index tends to rise sharply around this time of year. Both 2023 and 2024 saw significant volatility increases in October, highlighting a repeating seasonal pattern.
CoinDesk Research notes that 2025’s volatility settings closely mirror 2023, and it wasn’t until late October that IV began its next big rally, rising from 40% to more than 60% annually.
The same goes for spot prices. Historically, the second half of October brings greater returns than the first half.
Bitcoin is up an average of about 6% weekly over the next two weeks, making it one of the most bullish periods of the year, according to data from Coinglass. November is typically our best performing month, with an average return of over 45% so far.
In the coming weeks, IV is expected to increase from the current range.
broader inverse relationship
Since the end of last year, BTC’s IV has tended to rise frequently when the price falls in typical Wall Street-like dynamics. This inverse relationship is evident from the sustained downward trend in IV and the widespread upward trend in prices since the end of last year.
As Bitcoin matures as an asset, the law of diminishing returns suggests that price increases will gradually taper off and volatility will also decrease over time. Zooming out, the BVIV model shows a clear long-term downward trend in implied volatility since the indicator was first introduced.
