Rumors of insider trading swept social media over the weekend as one wallet amassed generational wealth in a single transaction.
Bitcoin prices fell sharply after President Trump announced on Friday that he plans to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports starting November 1st.
Markets recovered on Monday as crypto derivatives reset and spot demand stabilized, even as theories circulated on social media that a large Bitcoin short opened shortly before the announcement was linked to a member of the Trump family.
The tariff post hurt risk assets throughout the session over the weekend, with Bitcoin exploring $105,000 territory before reversing to around $115,000 in Europe by Monday morning.
Cryptocurrency liquidations in the 24 hours before and after the decline were concentrated at approximately $19 billion, with more than 1.6 million accounts liquidated.
The rumor focuses on a massive Bitcoin short sale that was opened before the customs post, and some versions attribute the trade to Barron Trump. As of publication, there is no public, verifiable correspondence or on-chain evidence linking members of the Trump family to such positions.
The data that positions Barron Trump in the crypto space primarily concerns his profile, including family asset disclosure and financial information. Forbes magazine ranking, Previous meme coin rumor cycle, no documented derivatives activity.
big bitcoin short
The trader, identified elsewhere as Garrett Jin, made headlines Friday when he opened a large short position in Bitcoin minutes before President Trump publicly announced new 100% tariffs on China. The trader used decentralized exchange HyperLiquid to place short bets on Bitcoin and Ethereum with a notional value of over $700 million.
Within hours of the announcement and subsequent price drop, the trader reportedly made between $160 million and $200 million in profits. Bitcoin plummeted from around $124,000 to $105,000, and Ethereum followed with a double-digit decline. On-chain analysis shows that traders temporarily remained short Bitcoin worth around $92 million after the crash, but most positions were quickly closed to lock in these large profits.
The exact timing of these moves, carried out just before Trump’s post as president, has sparked intense speculation in the crypto community about possible insider information, but no direct evidence has surfaced to support such claims.
In any case, the profit on this trade on Friday amounted to approximately $160 million to $200 million, representing one of the largest and fastest windfall profits in recent crypto trading history.
The X account, which identifies itself as Jin, was posted on October 13, denying any ties to the Trump family, and framing the short as a macro/technical call amid overbought risk assets and rising U.S.-China tensions.
The account posted, “This fund does not belong to me. It belongs to my clients. We operate nodes and provide internal insights to our clients.” He then responded to Binance co-founder Qiao Changpeng:
“Thank you for sharing my personal information. To be clear, I have no connection to the Trump family or @DonaldJTrumpJr. This is not insider trading.”
Some X users are not convinced.
This gap is important for legal characterization.
Insider trading in the United States involves trading in material non-public information obtained or used in breach of duty.
The misappropriation theory under Rule 10b-5 covers transactions in confidential government information in violation of fiduciary or confidentiality obligations. of stock law The law applies to the misuse of nonpublic information by federal employees and employees and accelerates disclosure of transactions for covered employees, but enforcement pathways vary by agency and type of vehicle.
Since Bitcoin is treated as a regulated commodity, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will have jurisdiction over Bitcoin derivatives. The Securities and Exchange Commission has pursued insider trading cases where the assets in question are securities.
This combination means that any pricing will depend on evidence of access to the timing of private policies, evidence that trades were made based on that information, and records linking the positions to the individuals in question.
Tariff signaling, re-leveraging and currency-linked liquidity are likely to continue shaping price trends and flows over the next two to six weeks.
The base case assumes that China’s policy response evolves while the White House keeps its 100% tariff plan on track for November 1, with intermittent changes in rhetoric.
In the case of escalation, we envision clear retaliatory measures or additional U.S. trade measures, while in the case of de-escalation, we envision targeted carve-outs or delayed signals. Open interest and funding rates typically rebuild at a slower pace after a major liquidation event, potentially creating volatile ranges in the process while market makers normalize their inventories.
Looking at past episodes, we often see a second test of the stress zone the day after a record liquidation cluster, when stocks soften and the dollar strengthens. It’s also worth monitoring the exchange’s stablecoin flow. Because net deposits can front-load re-risking and increase USDT transfers to Binance during stabilization.
To base our discussion on a range of scenarios, the following table shows reasonable price corridors through early November based on Monday’s European morning spot levels.
| scenario | Main triggers and assumptions | BTC corridor example | Notable drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| escalation | With Chinese retaliation revealed or additional US action, S&P 500 down 5-8% from Monday, DXY up 1-2 points, VIX up 5-8 volume, open interest up another 5% from post-shock levels | 90,000 to 105,000 | Narrowing equity gap, negative funding, thin weekend book, second stage liquidation |
| base | The current situation is broken, there are no new measures until November 1st, and funds are gradually converging towards flat open interest rebuilding. | 110,000～125,000 | Range trading, net stablecoin deposits on major exchanges, realized volumes above recent averages |
| de-escalation | Carve-out or delayed signal, stock prices stabilize, dollar weakens, funding normalizes and becomes positive | 125,000 to 135,000 | Expansion of OI, spot-driven bids, and fewer forced sellers |
Liquidation calculations and weekend tapes reduce the need for manipulative narratives to explain this movement.
The $19 billion liquidation record was one of the largest single-day events ever reported for a cryptocurrency, and Bitcoin shares alone coincided with a flash of cross positions in multiple venues that recovered by Monday, along with declines in related assets.
Even if a single short sale triggered this path, it would need to be reconciled with observed funding and order book behavior across multiple exchanges, tariff post timing, and correlated risk asset behavior.
The cross-market situation is important here. This is because tariff shocks are delivered through supply chain expectations, rare earth and technology inputs, and large-cap factor movements, and cryptocurrencies tend to trade in a basket of high-beta stocks on such days.
The legal framework is forward-looking.
If law enforcement pursues this rumor, key questions will be whether they had prior access to nonpublic information about the timing and content of the tariffs, whether confidentiality agreements were breached, whether transactions were made based on that information, and whether the records link those transactions to the individuals named.
Lacking documentary evidence, this rumor remains a tale of coordination rather than evidence of action.. A television commentary featured by PBS earlier this year assessed the likelihood of legal arrest from the customs post alone as low.Meanwhile, legislative interest in tightening trade rules for officials advanced in the Senate.
For readers tracking short-term market structure, a compact set of indicators can transform policy noise into positioning signals.
First, Bitcoin perpetual open interest compared to the 7-day average, combined with funding rate direction, can help identify whether new leverage is chasing a rebound or if the market is still de-risking. A live panel of these numbers is available on CoinGlass.
Second, the exchange of stablecoin balances and large net deposits, particularly into Binance and CME Basis movements, is likely to occur ahead of a time when spot leads and derivatives will catch up.
Third, stock futures and the dollar index related to tariff headlines could gate the crypto range during the day.
The price path through November 1st will be set by tariff guidance, equity and dollar conditions, and whether leverage is rebuilt sooner than spot flows warrant.
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