Bitcoin’s steady rise to a new all-time high in October of this year has resurfaced the familiar question of whether the next breakout will mark the first sustained rally to $150,000.
This optimism follows a surge in derivatives positioning and ETF inflows, suggesting that institutional momentum may be reshaping the cycle’s upper bound, rather than simply fueling further speculative rallies.
Derivatives market lit the fuse
At Derive.xyz, options traders are already determined and believe the flagship digital asset is trending upwards.
According to data shared with crypto slatecontracts set to mature by the end of October show an aggressive bias to the upside, suggesting expectations for price action as high as $150,000.
Dean Dawson, head of research at Derive, says the setting reflects more than optimism. He pointed out:
“Bitcoin volatility is poised for a breakout. Implied volatility across 14-day, 30-day, and 90-day expirations has surged to its highest level in the past 30 days, indicating growing expectations for a big move ahead.”
But the movement is not imagined in isolation. This is priced in against macro realities, particularly the near-unanimous expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month. Polymarket traders see odds of around 90%, and those probabilities extend to all liquidity-sensitive asset classes.
Lower interest rates reduce the real rate of return on cash, making high-beta assets like Bitcoin more attractive. The data shows that volatility follows liquidity, and for now, liquidity is recovering.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows
This new liquidity is most evident in the Spot Bitcoin ETF, which continues to serve as the most transparent window into institutional sentiment.
So far this month, 12 funds have raised more than $5 billion in new capital, on pace to surpass the $6.49 billion record set last November, when Bitcoin broke the $100,000 mark for the first time.
Supporting this view, CryptoQuant pointed out that the Coinbase Premium Index, a measure of US institutional demand, has remained positive for 42 consecutive days, supporting continued accumulation by regulated investors.
According to a report by K33 Research, the average 30-day return for Bitcoin when ETF flows are in a positive trend is 8.2%. This number jumps to 23.6% when monthly inflows exceed 20,000 BTC. In contrast, the share for the spill period from 2020 to 2023 was 4%.
The key here is that as structured investment vehicles attract capital, BTC is quietly removed from circulation, tightening the float. If this pattern holds, today’s inflow momentum could propel Bitcoin towards $130,000 to $150,000 without speculative mania materializing.
supply of replacement goods decreases
Another key bullish signal for BTC moving towards $150,000 is a decrease in exchange supply.
According to data from Glassnode, exchange-held reserves have fallen to a multi-year low of 2.838 million BTC (14.24% of total supply). This is further supported by the fact that Bitwise noted that large BTC holders withdrew 49,158 BTC last week, marking the 143rd largest outflow in history.
According to the company,
“While these transfers may be related to internal exchange activity, the combination of increased buy-side trading volumes and decreased exchange balances supports the validity of this observation.”
Additionally, the asset management company reported that realized gains for short-term holders amounted to just $3.07 billion last week. Notably, this is less than a third of what was seen during the 2021 peak.
In other words, the market is rising without people rushing to sell. Coins are disappearing from exchanges, but they won’t come back in large numbers even if the price increases. This represents a textbook setup for supply compression and thus price acceleration.
Macro trends favor Bitcoin
Beyond cryptocurrency-specific data, the global environment is quietly strengthening the foundations for Bitcoin’s potential upside.
Bitwise said rising geopolitical risks and persistent inflationary pressures are making stability in the United States difficult. Meanwhile, global borrowing has soared, putting pressure on fiat currencies and reigniting demand for hard assets such as gold.
Gold, long considered a traditional hedge, has soared 50.03% since the beginning of the year, outperforming Bitcoin so far. However, its strength has divided investors’ opinions.
One camp believes that gold’s bull market has gone too far, prompting reallocation to alternative currencies such as Bitcoin, which offer a similar hedge against currency depreciation but with a lower valuation premium. The other camp expects gold to continue to dominate, supported by central bank savings, Chinese retail buying and policy uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s trade policies.
In any case, the liquidity outlook is favorable for both assets. Central banks appear poised to maintain more accommodative monetary settings, including lower interest rates, potential yield curve control, and balance sheet expansion, which could result in capital flooding into the market. Liquidity is often moving to the edge of institutional risk obligations, and that’s where Bitcoin increasingly resides.
As such, investors on both sides of the “store of value” divide may flock to the same actions. While gold reallocators may turn to digital assets in search of asymmetric upside, traditional allocators chasing beta will likely still be supported by the same liquidity tides.
Ultimately, both stories converge on the same destination. It is a new capital influx into digital assets driven by the global search for protection in an era of structural financial expansion.
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(Tag translation) Bitcoin
