Will EU sanctions route Ruble Stablecoin to Bitcoin?

The European Union (EU) is moving to stifle ruble-backed tokens that route billions of dollars into European crypto markets through Kyrgyzstan, but available data suggests that authorized flows represent just 2.37% of the bloc’s overall Bitcoin trading volume.

As Bloomberg News reported on October 6, the EU has proposed sanctions regarding the A7A5. It was issued by cross-border payments company A7 and Russian state-owned Promsvaazbank (PSB).

This restriction prohibits EU-based entities from engaging in transactions involving tokens. The block also plans to target several banks in Russia, Belarus, and Central Asia to enable crypto-related transactions.

A7 is owned by Moldovan banker Ilan Shor and PSB. This was authorized by the UK, EU and US after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Garantex, the Russia-based crypto exchange that helped create A7A5, was licensed in the same year, and A7 itself was licensed in early 2025.

Despite these measures, A7 operations continue to expand. The company, through its Kyrgyz subsidiary, launched the international settlement digital bill, allowing holders to receive A7A5 tokens on the Tron network or exchange them for Russian rubles.

Oval’s calculated 41.6 billion A7A5 tokens were worth $496 million as of September 26, with cumulative transaction value reaching $68 billion.

A7A5 dominates cryptorails from the ruble

A7 network operates the most prominent route for moving rubles into the crypto market.

According to reports, users convert Russian rubles to A7A5 within the A7/old Vector setup, exchange Stablecoins on the Kyrgyzstan registered exchange Grinex, and then exchange them for Dollar Stablecoins, typically USDT.

Tokens will be issued in Ethereum and Tron before being routed to recipients, including EU-based crypto asset service providers.

The second route runs to USDT via Russia-based OTC and peer-to-peer markets, often facilitated on Tron.

The US has licensed NetEx24 and BitPapa to operate crypto ramps that provide services to licensed actors.

In addition, Garantex, the largest OTC service provider, was suspended after Tether, which held about 2.5 billion rubles, froze its wallets in March.

The third channel relies on regional “transit hubs”. Watchdog organizations highlight Kyrgyzstan’s rapidly expanding VASP ecosystem, while Turkish authorities have tightened Stubcoin transfer limits to $3,000 daily and $50,000 monthly, depending on routing activity through the jurisdiction.

Garantex, Grinex and A7 connected

According to the U.S. Treasury, Grinex was created by Garantex employees shortly after the law enforcement disruption and continued to operate as Garantex customer deposits were transferred.

Business registration is expected to converge to formation in late 2024, with operation in early 2024.

The Ministry of Finance has said that A7A5 was created “for Russian customers of A7” and has an older vector working with Garantex on the development of the Token.

OFAC designated A7 and its two subsidiaries alongside the older Vector, describing them as cross-border settlement platforms used for sanctions evasion.

A7A5 and Grinex represent the main rails of the Ruble to Crypto conversion, replacing the previous infrastructure destroyed by sanctions.

EU Bitcoin volume ruble flow rate

The Euro pair of Bitcoin (BTC/EUR) serves as the main trading pair in the EU venue. According to Kaiko’s European report, euro religion trading is concentrated on a few EU platforms, with BTC/EUR being the most popular euro pair.

In 2024, the Euro volume has increased rapidly, and BTC-EUR’s share of the global BTC-Fiat trading climb has reached approximately 10%.

Outside of the euro, only a few national currency BTC pairs remain durable on EU exchanges.

Polish Zonda routinely lists BTC/PLN as its most active market. Czech Exchange Coinmate operates the BTC/CZK market. These local pairs have domestic significance but remain small compared to the entire block BTC/EUR.

In this landscape, available public data suggests that ruble-related liquidity represents a small proportion of European Bitcoin transactions.

A September 9 report by the European Securities and Markets Authority shows that Bitcoin trading volume in regulated EU venues reached approximately $7.5 trillion in the first half of 2025.

Elliptic’s September 26 analysis found that A7A5 processed $68 billion in on-chain transactions. This is more than the $89 billion reported by A7 founder Ilan Shor on September 4th in an online speech he presented to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

An Oct. 6 report by the Center for Information and Resilience said A7’s director of sales said in late August that 6% of the company’s payments went to Europe.

Applying that 6% figure would put the European director’s flow in the range of $4.08 billion to $5.34 billion, taking into account Oval and Scholl’s numbers.

Even if we take the higher estimate, A7A5 flows to Europe still represent about 0.071% of EU Bitcoin volume in 2025.

However, this calculation only captures the A7A5 rail and excludes old OTC/P2P routes, regional hub activity, and direct Russian exchange flows.

Taking into account these additional channels for which there is no comprehensive public data but appear in the sanctions designation, the total ruble exposure to the EU Bitcoin market could reach several times the A7A5 figure alone.

Conservative estimates place total ruble-to-bitcoin flows at 2.37% of EU trading volume, suggesting that licensed infrastructure, while absolutely important, operates at the edges of European crypto liquidity rather than at its core.

What EU sanctions mean for the Bitcoin market

The proposed EU sanctions targeting A7A5 are aimed at severing specific sanctions repeal channels rather than addressing systemic threats to Bitcoin liquidity in Europe.

The estimated exposure of 2.37% suggests that a block on the Ruble Stablecoin route will have an immediate impact on the BTC/EUR order book for the entire block.

This action represents increased regulatory coordination. The US Treasury, UK government, and now EU authorities have taken turns against the A7 network, demonstrating a willingness to target crypto infrastructure regardless of jurisdiction.

For market participants, sanctions create a compliance burden rather than a liquidity shock.

While EU-based VASPs will have to screen for A7A5 exposure and ties to designated entities, the dominance of the BTC/EUR pair on established exchanges will dissuade mainstream European trading from direct disruption.

The bigger question is whether authorities can maintain enforcement as authorized parties migrate to new rails.

Garantex’s March 2025 disruption led directly to the creation of Grinex within days. Unless enforcement targets the underlying demand created by the need for Russian entities to move capital across borders, new channels will emerge as quickly as old ones approach.

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