Bitcoin hits $118.5K: Rate Cut Bet crushes shorts, so could be the best ever

Bitcoin prices traded nearly $118,500 on Thursday as US government shutdowns boosted rate cut odds, relaxed the dollar and visible short squeezes accelerated at derivative venues.

As the gold priced solidified and hovered near 97.6, it printed a golden record high of around $3,895 per ounce. These conditions historically match the stronger performance of Bitcoin when actual yields lower drift. According to data from the Ministry of Finance market, the 10-year tips sit between 1.77 and 1.78 percent, reinforcing the macro impulse that matches the movement.

The jump that day made the tape sensitive to macro headings and flow shocks following a reset of positioning that cleared leverage in late September. Last week we saw a $1.7 billion crypto liquidation. This is usually a clean-out that reduces one-way convexity until new catalyst arrives.

According to Coinglass, the clearing heatmap to the $118,000-$120,000 zone shows dense short pockets before a break, and once cleared, these clusters often behave like gradual gradual for continuance if spot demand continues.

Bitcoin is currently only 4.8% off its record high. As the squeeze continued, I was able to see the price discovery later on “Uptober.”

Funding for the major permanent pair is gently leaning forward in the vinance to print +0.0084% +0.0084% in late September.

Spot Market pipes remain engines.

According to Farside Investors, the US Spot Bitcoin ETF saw a new burst of $645 million in daily activity yesterday, with a daily net inflow of $645 million exceeding $1.6 billion.

If the daily net inflow is maintained at over $500 million in two sessions, Price tends to add another 3-7% over the next 72 hours based on the recent 2025 episodes, but two or more outflow sessions over $300 million are linked to soft tape and tilt towards negative funding.

Flow is a mechanical bridge between the macro story and the executed instructions, and on days when dollars slip off and actual yields are low, ETF works often carry that macro.

On-chain trend framing remained pinned to a single number that traders could track without any fit. According to Glassnode’s on-chain last week, the short-term holders are sitting at a price of nearly $111,000, and serve as a sandy moving line for momentum.

A decisive daily hold beyond that level will historically keep trending construction intact, but the losses open up air pockets to previously accepted values, from about $106,000 to $108,000, where liquidation and bids are being met more frequently this quarter.

That anchor is blended with the visible liquidation map above today’s print. This pocket is an obvious magnet in foam from $120,500 to $121,000 if the flow is extended.

The macro context provides timing.

The US government closure, which began on October 1, complicated the data path to the Federal Reserve Conference on October 29, urging traders to increase the odds of a 25 basis point reduction as a hedge against long-term uncertainty.

In that environment, dollar-height slides slide towards 1997, when bids are lined up across gold and Bitcoin, with real yield drops in line.

Bitcoin’s biggest spot conduit is now an ETF complex where macros shift towards daily creation and redemption, so the signal is less in commentary and more in tape.

The option provided a separate lens for the short-term pass. According to data from Deribit Open-Interest, about $8 billion in Bitcoin options expired on October 31st, building around a $120,000 and $125,000 round strike.

Dealer hedges can pin prices for these regions as they flow from Net to Neutral. This helps explain why post-breakout tapes are often compressed towards strikes before fresh impulses from ETF prints or macros knock out of the trajectory. At the end of each month, Skew and Dvol remain informed by Quick as to whether today’s move is bleeding premium or remains spot-driven.

Shotdown-Linked Hedging’s Gold Set Records, Bitcoin, took part in the move with a higher beta version. This relationship often appears when dollar direction and real fees control.

BlackRock’s IBIT is the fastest growing ETF in history, with details relating to the story of structural demand each time a macro sets the background. In such a window, the comparison is not a problem with sound money lore, but a practical effect of low discount rates that meet high gamma assets using live creation rails.

Short-term paths are surrounded by scenarios that are fixed to observable inputs rather than adjectives.

If the US spot ETF influx exceeds $500 million in two more consecutive sessions, an increase extension from $121,000 to $125,000 is more likely. The dollar index is below 98, with 10-year hints heading towards 1.7%.

According to DeLibit data and historical conditioning, tapes with ETFs chop between plus or minus $200 million, shutdown headlines halt the dollar back and forth, and dealer placement to expire on October 31st, and shutdown headlines print $1 back and forth, high volatile ranges from $112,000 to $121,000 fit.

Pullbacks to the $106,000-$111,000 band will determine two-day outflows of over $300 million, bounces on the $99 index, a rise since returning to over 1.9%, and a crease for short-term holders of $111,000.

To keep your analysis grounded, you can monitor and monitor the most relevant signs and convert them into work maps.

The structural point is that today’s movement is more plumbing than prose.

ETF Creations converts macro inputs into tickets, converts liquidation clusters into environmental clusters into momentum, and on an on-chain cost basis, it provides clean risk markers that match the way more systematic funds monitor trends.

The next set of US ETF prints will test whether the re-acceleration of the past month will return in parallel with soft dollars.

The $111,000 short-term holder line remains at a threshold that separates the expansion from the digestive stage. The remaining liquidation bands above $120,000 are now close enough to be if the flow is extended before hedging options and if the flow is extended before reconsidering controls.

The market resolves short-term questions through these inputs rather than rhetoric, and the ETF creation and redemption closed balance indicates whether the bid is being extended or the fade is extended.

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