Bitcoin prices crash to $109,000 as the September curse wipes out a $1.7 billion long position.
The agency will withdraw from the ETF, but analysts say the fear could cause a major Bitcoin breakout.
History shows Bitcoin averages 85% Q4 profit despite the September losses plaguing traders.
Cryptobirb forecasts Q4 first, supported by Fed reductions, surges in demand and rarity.
Bitcoin has returned to bare mode, trading nearly $109,000, and once again, the “Curse of September” appears to be haunting the crypto market. The long position of nearly $1.7 billion has been wiped out, causing retailers to shake up confidence.
But the big picture may not be September, according to analyst Cryptobirb. Instead, Q4 could be where Bitcoin sets up for the next big breakout.
Why September feels like a curse
Historically, September has not been kind to Bitcoin. Coinglass data shows that on average this month it caused a 6% loss in the crypto market. Many expected 2025 to break the trend, but early profits have already been wiped out.
What began as one of the most promising Septembers in years has now wiped out almost all early profits.
Meanwhile, retailers are selling, as well as institutions are pulling back. The Bitcoin Spot ETF faced a $795.8 million spill in a row, losing $1.13 billion this week.
This suggests that money may be back in Bitcoin. For large players, fear of the market is not a reason to do so. That’s why I buy it.
Bear setup, breakout is coming
Despite the panic, Cryptobirb says the outlook may not be as bad as it looks. In the higher time frame, Bitcoin is still safe. However, on the charts, the photos are unstable. BTC is below the 200-day trendline and below $112,400, leaving $104,000 in its next major support.
Even momentum is declining, with RSI showing weakness at 38. Bitcoin is packed between $100,000 and $115,000, suggesting a major breakout coming.
The “Fear & Greed Index” fell to 33, signaling “fear” and causing retailers to panic. Ironically, this same fear may be the fuel that stimulates Bitcoin’s next major move.
Q4: Bitcoin’s strongest season
Despite the September recession, Cryptobirb expects Q4 to be bullish. Key drivers include potential Fed rate cuts, increased risk of weakening the dollar, and imbalances in supply and demand, with only $3 trillion institutional demand for new BTC worth $77 billion each year.
History also supports bulls. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged 85% returns in the fourth quarter, with an average of 46% in November alone and around 21% in October.
For now, Bitcoin has been trading at a slightly higher price of $109,590 in the last 24 hours, but all eyes are in the fourth quarter.
