Bitcoin (BTC) is a key moment. The largest digital assets by Capitalization have registered a recent set fold that, although moderate compared to other cryptographic effects, have doubts about its ability to resume historic maximums in the short term.
Bitcoin prices ranged between $112,000 and $118,000 over the past four weeks, indicating a consolidation move This reflects both the overheating signal and the correction phase.
This behavior led to technical analysis. On-chain The market seeks to explain the forces behind the left and right as it confirms the continuity of the upward cycle and expects a clear catalyst that can break the integration range.
Weakness and overheating signals
Financial analyst Prathik Desai points out that the worn-out power benefit index (SOPR), which measures whether BTC is in motion, is below 1 when it does so with profit or loss, when the currency recedes from 117,000 to $112,000. this It reflects the decline in the ability to sell along with profits.
According to Desai, «long-term holders, which were strongly distributed at the beginning of the month, are currently less active. The market is in an unpleasant middle ground. They don’t become distraught or show solid beliefs».
This panorama matches and shows the data from Cryptoquant. Bitcoin’s supply for profits is located at around 91%. It has decreased from nearly 100% after the recent maximum. They also show that BTC touched the standard deviation +1 band.
As Yansei Dent analysts see, the band is “indicating a high risk of short-term fixes, which makes this situation a good advantage for aggressive purchases.”
In this framework, Dent shows that “the upward cycle remains intact in the long run.” Gain supply is well above the 1,500-day mobile averagehowever, he warns that “more attractive entry opportunities” could emerge when the indicator approaches a band of +0.4 standard deviation.
The standard deviation band is the range calculated from the average of the dataset and usually indicates how well the value is separated from that average.
In the financial market, They apply to prices to identify “normal” vibration levels. If the price is approaching the standard deviation, it is interpreted as being in the high zone within a typical range and could be overly extended, but about -1 standard deviation is considered in the low zone associated with underestimation. These bands help to detect moments of overheating or opportunity in a wide range of trends.
Technical and basic perspectives
From technical analysis, the trader known as Xanrox has identified the rising wedge patterns that form the price of BTC. This type of training usually expects a bearish breakup, which can lead to a significant drop.
Analysts will eliminate forecasts that place Bitcoin at USD 300,000 or $500,000 by the end of this year. On your stage, Prices can reach up to $127,000 in this cycleOn the other hand, if the wedge breaks down, the most relevant support is $85,000.
A factor that also affects the lack of market impulses is whale activity. Since August 21, 147,000 BTC has been on sale, with the total balance dropping to the fastest monthly rate of the cycle. This sales pressure limits the possibility that prices will quickly resume bullish roads.
The scenario now looks like a bassist, There are experts who don’t worry about that, and on the contrary, they cement a bullish perspective. By the end of this year. This is the case with Colombian analyst Juan Rodriguez. He thinks Bitcoin fixes are “cleaning for someone who is clearly overwhelmed” he believes he has had recently.
For analysts, “We can’t go to ATH in the market. Furthermore, he says Bitcoin has grown 78% last year and has grown close to 975% over five years, maintaining a positive trend.
«This does not carry out the asset. If you’re trying to protect your legacy, you have to focus on Bitcoin, more than any other token that falls deeper with each correction,” Rodriguez said.
Macros and long-term vision
Rodrigo Durán Guzmán, Cryptomkt Communications Director, claims that Bitcoin faces a combination of factors that limit its immediate growth. He explains, “The macroeconomic environment remains complex, with high interest rates and monetary policy, which has begun to become flexible, but does not provide a powerful signal of stimulation.” This will keep institutional investors cautious. ”
Duran points to his profit after peaks approaching $120,000Mada is a “factor that delays the entry of new capital” to US regulatory uncertainty. Still, he makes it clear that Bitcoin’s narrative as a digital value reserve remains intact, and that the current left-right response to the integration phase.
It’s worth mentioning in the US. There is no regulatory uncertainty like in the past few years. Since Donald Trump took power this January, American authorities have opened weapons to the ecosystem. This has been demonstrated, among other things, through the recognition and promulgation of laws related to the digital asset sector, such as the Genius Act.
In the long-term forecast, Duran said: “Historically, Bitcoin has shown a defined cycle around her halving, with the last one occurring in April 2024.
Durán eliminates the market being overloaded; However, the “delicate balance” point is explained. Derivative leverage is less than in past cycles, and the presence of ETF reduces the risk of extreme bubbles. Still, he believes that “a robust catalyst is needed, including more aggressive cuts in interest rates and clarity in regulations to resume sustainable growth.”
In his vision, the new bullish impulse for the last quarter of 2025 will depend on three factors: monetary policy, regulatory advancements and technological development in the ecosystem.
In fact, Bitcoin travels through the integration phase marked by mixed signals. Technical data shows short-term overheating and large-scale holder sales. Macro and structure analysis continues to make use of the expectations of a wider bull cycle. As a result, the price It reflects the market that digests profits and searches for new catalysts Before trying to overcome their historical maximums again.
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